经济恢复发展进程中的宏观政策效应评估——宏观政策“三策合一”指数与宏观政策评价报告2024

Effect Evaluation of Macro Policy in the Process of Economic Recovery and Development:Macro-Policy Trinity Indices and Macro Policy Evaluation Report 2024

基于宏观政策“三策合一”理论与宏观政策“三策合一”指数,对2023年的宏观政策及其调控效果进行系统评价。从政策调控效果来看,2023年产出缺口与潜在增速缺口双双收窄,金融风险整体可控,宏观政策较好地实现了经济稳定和金融稳定“双稳定”目标。但也要注意到,产出缺口和潜在增速缺口依然为负,此外部分领域仍然面临潜在风险。从政策操作来看,2023年宏观政策稳中求进,积极有效地应对了内外部压力,但稳定政策的力度和传导效率有待进一步提升,稳定政策、增长政策与结构政策的取向一致性有待加强。总体上,2024年中国经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变,但也面临一些困难和挑战。建议采取“宏观政策‘三策合一’+改革”的一揽子大宏观政策组合,加强增长政策和结构政策的使用,增强宏观政策取向一致性,从而提高宏观政策的整体调控效果,助力经济实现5%以上的增长目标。

Based on the theory of Macro-Policy Trinity and the Macro-Policy Trinity indices,this report provides a systematic evaluation of China's macro policies in 2023.From the perspective of policy effectiveness,the output gap and potential growth gap have both been narrowed,and the overall financial risk is controllable.Therefore,macro policies have achieved the dual objectives of economic stability and financial stability.However,it is worth noting that the output gap and potential growth gap are still negative,and some fields are still at potential risks.From the perspective of policy operations,macro policies have pursued progress while ensuring stability and responded to external and internal pressures effectively.However,the strength and efficiency of stabilization policy need to be further improved,and the orientation consistency among stabilization policy,growth policy,and structural policy needs to be strengthened.Overall,the basic trend of China's economic recovery and long-run positive outlook has not changed,but it also faces some difficulties and challenges.This report suggests adopting the combination of Macro-Policy Trinity and reform,strengthening the use of growth policy and structural policy,and further increasing the strength of stabilization policy with the coordination of growth policy and structural policy.This can improve the overall effects of macro policies and help Chinese economy achieve the growth target of over 5%.