数智化转型、多元回归模型与产品多维决策分析——长安汽车量价分析模型(CA-MDM)应用探索

Digital and Intelligent Transformation,Multiple Regression Models,and Multidimensional Decision Analysis of Products:Exploration of the Application of Changan Automobile Volume Price Analysis Model(CA-MDM)

针对传统产品量本利分析模型的多重局限性、企业数智化管控加速转型和汽车行业市场竞争进入白热化,汽车新产品、新赛道、新场景等诸多方面日新月异的背景,重庆长安汽车创造性地提出了量价分析模型(CAMDM)。这是以汽车行业和客户数智化为基础,运用市场需求理论,通过Facebook开源框架Prophet模型进行销量预测,结合延续(Carry-Over)价格指数对各类影响因子进行量化分析,建立以市占率和价格为核心的多元回归模型。该模型利用岭回归算法预测相关产品的均衡销量和价格,强调产品经营的前瞻性,强化新品上市的规模、价格与市场实际需求的匹配度和互动,确保产品上市的量价和市场需求基本一致,为企业资源精准投放、盈利能力持续提升和管理经验积淀推广提供了系统方案,应该成为中国企业数智化财务管理的最佳实践案例。

This paper addresses the multiple limitations of the traditional product volume-to-profit analysis model,the accelerated transformation of enterprise digital and intelligent management and control,and the fierce market competition in the automotive industry.In the context of the rapid changes in many aspects such as new products,new tracks,and new scenarios,Chongqing Changan Automobile proposes the Volume-Price Analysis Model(CA-MDM)which is based on the digital intelligence of the automotive industry and customers,and uses market demand theory to quantitatively analyze various determinants,establishing a multiple regression model based on market share and price.This model uses the ridge regression algorithm to predict the equilibrium sales volume and price of related products,and it emphasizes forward-looking perspective in product management,strengthens the the alignment and interaction between the scale and price of new product and the actual market demand.It provides a systematic solution for efficient resource allocation,the continuous improvement of profitability,and the promotion of management experience.It is a best practice case of Chinese enterprises'digital and intelligent financial management.