不同筹资模式下长护险可持续性研究——以长三角地区为例

Sustainability of Long-Term Care Insurance Under Different Financing Forms——Taking the Yangtze River Delta Region for an Example

长护险基金收支平衡是实现制度可持续发展的重要条件。本文以长三角地区采用比例筹资的上海和定额筹资的苏州作为研究对象,在假设政策条件不变的情况下,利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对这两个城市未来10年(2023年—2032年)的基金收支平衡状况进行预测。通过实证分析,本文得出如下结论:第一,比例筹资形式下,上海市长护险基金收入年均增长速度显著高于支出增速,基金结余率在80%-97%之间,基金结余率明显偏高;第二,采用差异化定额筹资形式的苏州,基金收入年均增长速度略高于支出增速,基金结余率在28%-35%之间,基金结余率较为合理,收支更接近平衡状态。两个城市基金结余率的差异可能受筹资、待遇给付等因素影响,本文认为可以采用混合筹资形式,建立多渠道独立筹资机制,完善长护险待遇给付机制,避免基金浪费,以期为长护险制度可持续发展提供借鉴。

The balance of income and expenditure of long-term care insurance fund is an important condition to realize the sustainable development of the system.This paper takes Shanghai,which adopts proportional financing,and Suzhou,which adopts fixed amount financing in the Yangtze River Delta region,as the research object,and uses the GM(1,1)to forecast their fund balance in the next ten years from 2023 to 2032 under the condition that the policy remains unchanged.Through empirical analysis,this paper holds that first,the annual growth rate of fund income in Shanghai is significantly higher than that of expenditure,resulting in a balance rate of 80%to 97%,which is obviously high.Second,Suzhou has a slightly higher annual growth rate of fund income than expenditure.The fund balance rate is within a reasonable range of 28%to 35%,and the income and expenditure is closer to the balance state.The difference in the fund balance ratio between the two cities may be influenced by factors such as financing and benefit payments.This article suggests adopting a mixed financing form,establishing a multi-channel independent financing mechanism,improving the long-term care insurance benefit payment mechanism,avoiding fund waste,and providing a reference for the sustainable development of the long-term care insurance system.