面向夏季高温的多城市行业级负荷画像与降温负荷测算

Multi-city Industry-level Load Profiling and Cooling Load Measurement Considering Summer Hotwaves

夏季高温热浪等极端天气事件日益频发,对空调降温负荷本就较大的部分城市的电力供需平衡造成严峻挑战。产业结构与行业属性的异质使得不同城市不同行业夏季用电负荷的受高温影响程度差异显著。分别选择以服务业、工业和农业为主的厦门、泉州和南平3个城市的15个高电耗行业为研究对象,基于2021年的海量实测负荷数据与天气数据,分析各城市各行业的负荷时空特性,进一步提出基于负荷解耦的降温负荷测算方法,更加科学地量化多城市行业级降温负荷占比。研究可为福建省及同气候区城市在夏季制定电力负荷管理政策提供参考依据。

The increasingly frequent extreme high temperatures in summer pose a serious challenge to the balance of electricity supply and demand in some cities for which the air-conditioning-induced cooling load is already large.The heterogeneity of industrial mix and industry attributes makes the impact of high temperature on the summer electricity load of different industries in different cities vary significantly.Therefore,the top 15 electricity consumption industries in Xiamen,Quanzhou,and Nanping,which have mainly service,industry,and agriculture industries,are selected as research objects.Based on the real measured load data and weather data in 2021,the spatial and temporal characteristics of load profiles for each industry in each city are analyzed.Moreover,the cooling load estimation method based on load-decoupling is further proposed to quantify the proportion of industry-level cooling load more rationally in three cities.The research could offer reference for Fujian Province and cities in the same climate zone when setup demand-side management policies during hot summer.