基于InVEST模型的京津冀土地利用变化及碳储量时空分异研究

Study on land use change and spatiotemporal variation of carbon storage in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on InVEST model

大气中二氧化碳含量的增加是国际社会广泛关注的环境问题,人类活动改变土地利用格局,而土地利用/覆被(land-use/land-cover,LULC)变化影响陆地生态系统结构、功能及碳循环。本文在全球地表覆盖数据GlobeLand30的支持下分析了2000-2020年京津冀土地利用变化,利用InVEST模型模拟了碳储量时空变化,并结合空间自相关分析技术对其进行了分区研究。结果表明:①2000-2020年京津冀地区耕地和人造地表变化面积最大,分别为减少340222.124 hm^(2)和增加246333.493 hm^(2);②京津冀地区2000、2010和2020年碳储量总值分别为1666.47×10^(6)、1654.63×10^(6)、1632.88×10^(6)t,耕地流失和人造地表扩张是碳储量下降的主要原因;③京津冀碳储量高值主要分布在海拔相对较高的山林地区,低值主要分布在北京市中心、津冀海岸带,以及河北省沧州和唐山的东部南部区域;④局部自相关结果表明,碳储量出现高-高聚集的区域在研究区的北部和西部,在出现低-低聚集的区域中天津市东丽区和河北省邯郸市邯山区呈现出较为明显的弱化趋势。

The increase in atmospheric CO 2content is an environmental issue of widespread international concern,and human activities change land use patterns,and land-use/land-cover(LULC)changes further affect terrestrial ecosystem structure,function,and carbon cycling.With the support of global land cover data GlobeLand30,This paper analyzed the land use changes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2000 to 2020,used InVEST model to imitate the Spatiotemporal changes of carbon stocks,and used the spatial autocorrelation analysis to study its zoning.The results show that:①From 2000 to 2020,the largest change area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is cultivated land and artificial surface,with an area decrease of 340222.124 hm^(2)and an area increase of 246333.493 hm^(2)respectively.②The total carbon reserves of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2000,2010 and 2020 are 1666.47×10^(6)、1654.63×10^(6)、1632.88×10^(6)t,the main reason for the decline in carbon storage are the loss of arable land and the expansion of artificial land surface.③The high value of carbon storage is mainly distributed in mountain and forest areas with relatively high altitude,while the low value areas of carbon reserves are mainly concentrated in central Beijing,the coastal zone of Tianjin and Hebei and the eastern Cangzhou,southern Tangshan.④The results of local autocorrelation show that the high value areas of carbon reserves are clustered in the north and west of the study area.Among the regions with low to low aggregation,Dongli district of tianjin city and Hanshan district of Handan city,Hebei province show a relatively obvious weakening trend.