体系制衡、威胁认知与陆海复合型大国的崛起困境

Systemic Balances, Threat Perceptions, and the Rising Dilemma of Maritime-Land Powers

关于陆海复合型大国能否摆脱崛起困境的议题探究经久不衰,从阿尔弗雷德·马汉到科林·格雷都进行了丰富的著述。既有的新古典现实主义主要聚焦于外交政策,本文则将其与地缘政治和大战略视野结合,体现了新古典现实主义对战略决策复杂性分析的增益效果。对崛起困境的考察包括战略环境研判、国内政治过滤、威胁研判、风险偏好的目标设定、战略选择及其战略效果等,囊括了完整的战略行为模式。体系制衡压力的大小作为自变量,经过进攻性或防御性威胁认知的中介变量过滤,导致窗口预期下的战略选择及衍生的战略透支风险。其中,体系制衡压力主要受体系位置和体系身份合法化清晰度的影响。威胁认知的攻防性质受到领导人意象、国内政治博弈、国内社会压力和战略文化的系统塑造。战略透支风险具有复杂性与不确定性,是一种非线性的因果机制,并不意味着战略透支后果和难以逆转的崛起困境。如若崛起国不及时止损以规避风险,则会陷入崛起困境。相反,及时修正战略路径则会跨越“奥古斯都门槛”。通过对德意志第二帝国发动一战陷入崛起困境的案例分析并进行过程追踪,以验证分析框架的合理性,为崛起国营造安全盈余的外部战略环境与审慎的海陆战略决策提供历史教义。

Topical inquiry into the ability of maritime-land complex powers to escape their rising dilemmas is enduring and has been richly written about by everyone from Alfred Mahan to Colin Gray.While established neoclassical realism focuses primarily on foreign policy,this paper combines it with geopolitical and grand strategic perspectives,exemplifying the effect of neoclassical realism’s additive effect on the analysis of the complexity of strategic decision-making.The examination of the rise dilemma includes strategic environment research,domestic political filtering,threat research,risk-prone goal setting,strategic choices and their strategic effects,encompassing a complete model of strategic behavior.The magnitude of systemic balances pressure serves as the independent variable,filtered by the mediating variable of offensive or defensive threat perception,and oriented to the strategic choices under the window expectation and the derived strategic overdraft risk.In particular,systemic balances pressure is primarily influenced by systemic location and clarity of systemic identity legitimization.The offensive and defensive nature of threat perceptions is systematically shaped by leadership imagery,domestic political games,domestic social pressures,and strategic culture.Strategic overdraft risk has complexity and uncertainty and is a non-linear causal mechanism that does not imply strategic overdraft consequences and irreversible rise dilemmas.If the rising country does not stop its losses in time to avoid the risk,it will fall into the dilemma of rising.On the contrary,a timely revision of the strategic path will cross the“Augustus Threshold”.By analyzing the case of the Second German Reich’s rise to power by launching World War I and tracing the process,the analytical framework is validated to provide historical teachings for the rising powers to create an external strategic environment of security surplus and prudent strategic decision-making on land and sea.