中美贸易摩擦对中国农产品贸易的影响

The Impact of Trade Friction on China’s Agricultural Trade

基于商务部发布的农业贸易数据,实证分析了中美贸易摩擦对中国农业贸易的影响及未来趋势。发现中美贸易摩擦使中国与美国农产品贸易总额大幅下降,自美进口额度降幅大于对美出口,中美农产品贸易的未来趋势难以预测。同时,贸易摩擦也为中国农产品贸易带来了新的发展机遇。提出了以下政策建议:一是促进中美双方和平对话,构建良性贸易环境;二是积极开拓多元化农产品市场,防范进口集中风险;三是推动农产品贸易转型,增强国际竞争力;四是加速农业科研改革与发展,调整农业生产结构。

Based on the agricultural trade data released by the Ministry of Commerce,this paper uses the methods of literature research and statistical analysis to analyze the impact of trade friction between China and US on China’s agricultural trade and its future trend.The research draws the following conclusions:The friction has greatly reduced the trade of major agricultural products such as soybeans and cotton imported from the United States,the total trade of agricultural products and exports to the United States.At the same time,frictions are complex and persistent,and the trend of agricultural trade is difficult to predict.According to the research,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:first,promote the peaceful dialogue between China and the United States and build a trade environment;second,actively explore diversified agricultural products markets and prevent the risk of import concentration;third,promote the transformation of agricultural products trade and enhance international competitiveness;fourth,accelerate the reform and development of agricultural scientific research and adjust the structure of agricultural production.