基于逐步回归分析模型的百色水利枢纽安全评价指标拟定

Development of Safety Evaluation Indicators for the Baise Water Conservancy Project Based on Stepwise Regression Analysis Model

百色水利枢纽工程已投入运行近20年,积累了大量的宝贵安全监测资料,在目前数字孪生水利工程建设的大背景下,建立一套有效且可靠的工程运行安全评价指标,是目前面临的重点和难点。文章基于逐步回归分析模型建立了适用于百色水利枢纽主坝垂直变形的安全评价指标,并用监测数据进行了验证,结果显示其拥有良好的精度和敏感性,可以复制推广到水平位移、渗流等各个监测项目,以期建立起工程运行安全评价指标体系,在数字孪生工程建设中具有一定的工程价值。

The Baise Water Conservancy Project has been in operation for nearly 20 years,accumulating a wealth of valuable safety monitoring data.In the current context of digital twin water conservancy project construction,establishing an effective and reliable set of operational safety evaluation indicators is a key and challenging task.This paper uses a stepwise regression analysis model to establish safety evaluation indicators applicable to the vertical deformation of the main dam at the Baise Water Conservancy Project and validates them using monitoring data.The results demonstrate its high accuracy and sensitivity,making it possible to replicate and extend to various monitoring parameters such as horizontal displacement and seepage.The goal is to establish a comprehensive system of operational safety evaluation indicators,which holds significant engineering value in the context of digital twin project construction.