兰州市生态环境评价与预测

EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT IN LANZHOU

遥感生态指数能对区域环境进行快速监测和评价,可实现对区域生态环境变化的可视化、时空分析及变化趋势预测。为评价兰州市生态红线保护区的生态保持和恢复情况,本文以兰州市2014—2017年的数据为研究对象,研究了兰州市在未划定生态红线保护区前的生态环境状况;又以兰州市生态红线保护区划定年2018年为起始,研究了兰州市2018—2021年的生态质量,计算结果显示,未划定生态红线保护区前,兰州市生态归一化指数均值为0.34,系统较稳定,环境整体质量较差;2018年以来,兰州市生态归一化指数均值为0.36,环境整体质量仍然处于较差的水平,但是生态系统的变化开始变得剧烈且往好的方向发展。通过构建灰度理论模型分析发现,兰州市未来几年内环境质量不断好转,预计2023年生态质量评级达到良好。

Remote sensing ecological index can quickly monitor and evaluate the regional environment,and can realize the visualization,temporal and spatial analysis and change trend prediction of regional ecological environment change.In order to evaluate the ecological conservation and restoration of Lanzhou ecological red line reserve,taking the data of Lanzhou from 2014 to 2017 as the research object,this paper studies the ecological environment of Lanzhou before the ecological red line reserve is not designated;Starting from 2018,the ecological quality of Lanzhou from 2018 to 2021 is studied.The calculation results show that before the delimitation of the ecological red line reserve,the average ecological normalization index of Lanzhou is 0.34,the system is relatively stable and the overall environmental quality is poor;Since 2018,the average ecological normalization index of Lanzhou is 0.36,and the overall environmental quality is still at a poor level,but the change of ecosystem begins to become violent and develop in a good direction.Through the construction of gray theoretical model,it is found that the environmental quality of Lanzhou will continue to improve in the next few years,and the ecological quality rating is expected to reach good in 2023.