2023年国内外宏观经济形势回顾与2024年展望

China and Global Macroeconomy:2023 Review and 2024 Prospect

世界百年未有之大变局加速演变,新冠疫情、地缘政治的冲击效应持续,加之美欧连续加息,主要发达经济体利率高企,2023年全球贸易低迷,经济增长放缓。2023年是我国结束疫情管控后的首年,经济复苏动能总体偏弱,呈现波浪式发展、曲折式前进态势。展望2024年,大国竞争与地区冲突交织,主要国家货币紧缩政策接近尾声,但预计资金成本仍阶段性维持高位,全球经济增长依旧乏力。我国经济仍然存在内外需求不足、转型升级压力较大、重点领域风险隐患较多的困难和挑战。我国将坚持推进高质量发展,加大改革力度,充分发挥政策效能,推动经济向潜在增长水平回归。

The world has undergone major changes unseen in a century,the impact of the new crown epidemic and geopolitics continues,coupled with continuous interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe,high interest rates in major developed economies,global trade was sluggish in 2023,and economic growth slowed down.In the first year after the end of epidemic control,China's economic recovery momentum was generally weak,showing a trend of wave-like development and tortuous progress.Looking forward to 2024,major power competition and regional conflicts are intertwined,and the monetary tightening policies of major countries are nearing the end,but the cost of funds is expected to remain high for a period of time,and global economic growth will remain weak.China's economy still has difficulties and challenges such as insufficient internal and external demand,great pressure on transition and upgrading,and many risks and hidden dangers in key areas.China will continue to promote high-quality development,intensify reforms,give full play to the effectiveness of policies,and promote the return of the economy to potential growth levels.