基于常规超声联合超声造影的列线图预测临床淋巴结阴性甲状腺乳头状癌中央区淋巴结转移

Nomogram Based on Conventional Ultrasound Combined with Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound for Predicting Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Clinical Lymph Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

目的基于常规超声联合超声造影(CEUS)指标,构建预测临床淋巴结阴性(CN0)的甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)发生颈部中央区淋巴结转移(CLNM)的风险概率列线图。资料与方法回顾性分析2015年9月—2022年3月于石河子大学第一附属医院行甲状腺手术及预防性颈部中央区淋巴结清扫的单发CN0 PTC 359例,根据术后病理结果分为CLNM阳性组116例与阴性组243例。记录患者性别、年龄、结节常规超声及CEUS指标,筛选出CN0 PTC发生CLNM的风险因素并构建预测模型。绘制受试者工作特征曲线并比较预测模型的曲线下面积(AUC),选取最佳预测模型构建风险概率列线图,分析列线图模型的预测效能及临床适用性。结果性别、年龄、结节最大径、被膜侵犯及CEUS强化方式为CN0 PTC发生CLNM的风险因素(P均<0.05),5个指标联合建立预测模型1的AUC为0.753,剔除CEUS指标建立预测模型2的AUC为0.704,两者AUC差异有统计学意义(Z=2.473,P=0.013)。选择预测模型1构建CN0 PTC发生CLNM的风险概率列线图,模型的C-指数为0.753,校准曲线结果表明一致性良好,临床决策曲线分析表明阈值概率为10.7%~81.5%时,列线图模型可获得较好的净收益。结论性别、年龄、结节最大径、被膜侵犯及CEUS强化方式是CN0 PTC发生CLNM的风险因素,以上指标联合建立的列线图模型可有效预测CLNM的发生概率,且CEUS指标可显著提高模型的预测效能。

Purpose To establish a nomogram based on conventional ultrasound combined with contrast-enhanced ultrasound(CEUS)for predicting the probability of cervical central lymph node metastasis(CLNM)in clinical lymph node-negative(CN0)papillary thyroid carcinoma(PTC)patients.Materials and Methods A retrospective study was performed on 359 patients with single CN0 PTC,all of whom underwent thyroid surgery and prophylactic central compartment neck dissection in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University from September 2015 to March 2022.According to the postoperative pathological results,there were 116 cases with CLNM(+)and other 243 cases with CLNM(-).The indicators of gender,age,conventional ultrasound and CEUS were recorded,and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression was performed to screen out risk predictors to construct prediction models for CLNM in CN0 PTC.The receiver operating characteristic curves of prediction models were drawn,and the area under the curve(AUC)was further compared.The preferable prediction model was selected to establish the risk probability nomogram,and the prediction performance and clinical applicability of the nomogram model were assessed.Results Multivariate analysis showed that gender,age,the maximum diameter of nodule,capsule invasion and enhancement pattern on CEUS were risk factors for CLNM in CN0 PTC(all P<0.05).The AUC of prediction model 1 including the above five indicators was 0.753,and the AUC of prediction model 2 excluding CEUS indicator was 0.704.There were statistically significant difference in AUCs between the two models(Z=2.473,P=0.013).Prediction model 1 was selected to construct a risk probability nomogram for predicting CLNM in CN0 PTC.The nomogram had a C-index of 0.753 and showed well consistency on the calibration curve.Clinical decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram could achieve ideal net benefit when the threshold probability was between 10.7%to 81.5%.Conclusion Gender,age,the maximum diameter of nodule,capsule invasion and enhancement pattern on CEUS may be the risk predictors for CLNM in CN0 PTC.The nomogram model based on the above indicators can predict the probability of CLNM effectively,and the CEUS indicators can substantially improve the prediction performance of the model.