面向横向比较的可持续发展综合评估方法改进

Improvement in the methodology of sustainable development assessment for horizontal comparison

2030年可持续发展议程以“不让任何人掉队”的发展理念,提出了17个可持续发展目标(SDGs)和169个指标,几乎涵盖了人类发展的方方面面。围绕SDGs的评估工作是一项世界性难题,既有理论上的不足使得定性目标难以全部有效转为定量指标,也有方法学上的缺陷导致多指标合成存在困难,不能进行有效和客观的横向比较。该研究主要围绕SDGs综合评估方法优化开展讨论。研究认为,由于SDGs的经济、社会、环境三个维度指标存在着一定的相关性,传统算术平均赋值权重的方法学可能引起历时性和共时性问题,从而拉大可持续发展目标完成情况评估结果的区域差距。该研究提出了指标权重客观赋值的方法学,采用多因子分析方法对指标的两两关系进行拟合,同时结合层次分析法构建SDGs的判断矩阵,实现指标权重的客观量化和赋值。以此为基础,开展中国31个省份在落实2030年可持续发展议程方面的进展评估,结果显示:各省份SDGs的评估得分总体上呈现出从东部逐渐向中西部递减的趋势,其中浙、沪、京等排名领先;通过将新方法的结果与传统的算术平均评估方法进行对比,发现新方法显著降低了经济发达地区和落后地区在落实SDGs方面的得分差异。这种情况也反映,在可持续发展框架下,不应该过于夸大经济增长的作用,应该追求经济、社会和环境三个支柱的均衡发展,实现生活质量和幸福指数的提升。

The United Nations'2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development contains 17 Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)and 169 targets covering almost all aspects of human development.The assessment of the SDGs is a common challenge,not only due to theoretical deficiencies that make it difficult to effectively convert qualitative goals into quantitative indicators,but also due to the methodological defects that make it difficult to synthesize multiple indicators,resulting in a failure to make horizontal comparisons.This study mainly discussed the optimization of a comprehensive assessment method of the SDGs and believed that due to the certain correlation between the economic,social,and environmental dimensions of the SDGs,the traditional arithmetic average weighting methodology could cause simultaneity and synchronicity problems,thereby widening the regional gap when accessing the achievement of the SDGs.The study proposed a method for objectively assigning weights to indicators that used multi-factor analysis methods to fit the pairwise relationships of indicators and constructed the judgment matrix of the SDGs based on an analytic hierarchy process.Based on this method,an assessment of the achievement of the 2030 SDGs in 31 provinces in China was carried out.The results showed that China's eastern region performed much better than the central and western regions,with Zhejiang,Shanghai,and Beijing leading the rankings.By comparing the results of the new method with the traditional method,we found that the new method significantly reduced the score difference between economically developed and backward regions in implementing the SDGs.This situation reflects that,under the framework of sustainable development,the role of economic growth should not be exaggerated,and the balanced development of the three pillars of economy,society,and environment should be pursued to improve the quality of life.