环境规制与数字经济:中国南北经济差异的诱致与扩大因素分析

Environmental regulation and the digital economy:an analysis of the inducement and enlargement factors of economic disparity between northern and southern China

将生态保护放在更加突出的位置上是践行新发展理念的突出特征之一,因此中国政府施行了严格的环境规制措施改善生态环境,并取得了显著成效。与此同时,南北方经济差距也引发广泛关注。利用2011—2020年中国地级市的有关数据进行实证分析,发现:环境规制与地区经济增长之间存在着显著的“U”型关系,以市场力量为主要资源配置方式的消费型第三产业和生产型第三产业在南方地区发展优于北方,这种产业结构优势能够将环境改善带来的正外部性转化为经济效益,从而弱化环境规制对经济增长的负面作用。以计算机服务和软件业为代表的生产型第三产业作为数字经济的基础产业在南方地区发展优于北方,使得数字经济在南方地区优势产业门类推进迅速。门槛模型分析显示,当数字经济发展水平较低时,环境规制对南方地区经济发展起显著促进作用,而北方地区起抑制作用;当数字经济发展水平较高时,环境规制对南北方经济发展均表现为显著促进作用,但南方地区强度明显优于北方,这使得南北方经济差距呈放大趋势。因此,缩小南北方经济差距,需要加快北方地区产业结构的进一步优化,在充分利用数字经济机遇的同时,推动环境改善产生的环境红利不断转化为经济效益。

Putting ecological protection in a more prominent position is one of the outstanding features of implementing China’s new development concept.Therefore,the Chinese government has implemented strict environmental regulation measures to improve the ecological environment,and has achieved remarkable results.Using the relevant data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020 for empirical analysis,this study found that there was a significant U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and regional economic growth.The consumption-oriented tertiary industry and the production-oriented tertiary industry,with market forces as the main resource allocation mode,developed better in southern China than in northern China.The structural advantage of tertiary industry with market forces as the main resource allocation mode in southern China could transform the positive externalities brought by environmental improvement into economic benefits so as to weaken the negative effect of environmental regulation on economic growth.As the basic industry of the digital economy,the production-oriented tertiary industry represented by computer service and the software industry developed better in southern China than in northern China,and the digital economy advanced rapidly in the advantageous industrial categories in southern China.Threshold model analysis showed that when the development level of the digital economy was low,environmental regulation had a significant promoting effect on the economic development of southern regions,while it had an inhibiting effect on the economic development of northern regions.When the development of the digital economy was high,environmental regulation played a significant role in promoting the economic development of southern and northern China,but it was obviously more intense in southern China than in northern China,making the economic disparities between the two demonstrate an amplified trend.Therefore,to narrow these disparities,it is necessary to further optimize the industrial structure in an accelerated manner,and promote the continuous transformation of environmental dividends into economic benefits while making full use of the opportunities of the digital economy.