气候风险与外商直接投资:基于城市层面的实证研究

Climate Risks and Foreign Direct Investment:Empirical Evidence from Cities

气候变化及其衍生的风险已成为影响国际投融资活动的一项重要的不确定性因素。基于2008—2019年城市级面板数据,从物理和转型两个方面考察气候风险对城市层面外商直接投资的影响及其空间溢出效应。研究发现,两种风险均会显著阻碍城市外资流入,且气候转型风险的负向影响持续时间更久。此外,气候风险对城市外资流入的影响存在空间溢出效应。其中,气候物理风险对邻近城市存在正向溢出效应,而气候转型风险则存在负向溢出效应。进一步研究表明,提高城市气候韧性有助于缓解气候风险对外资流入的负面影响。研究结论为认识和化解气候风险的负面经济影响提供了重要启示。

Climate change and its derived risks have become an important uncertainty factor affecting international investment and financing activities.Based on the city-level panel data between 2008 and 2019,this paper investigates impacts of two types of climate risks,namely physical and transitional risks at city level,on foreign direct investment and its spatial spillovers in China.Results show that both types of climate risks can significantly hinder the inflow of foreign capital into cities,and the negative impacts of transition risks last longer.In addition,there is a spatial spillover effect of climate risks on the inflow of foreign capital in cities.Climate physical risks have positive spillovers to neighboring cities,while climate transition risk has negative spillover.Further analysis shows that enhancing urban climate resilience can help neutralize the negative impacts of climate risks on foreign capital inflows.The conclusions of the study provide important implications for understanding and resolving the negative economic impacts of climate risks.