贸易条件与制造业全要素生产率

Terms of Trade and Manufacturing Total Factor Productivity

基于1999—2018年中国制造业行业面板数据,考察贸易条件对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,贸易条件与全要素生产率显著负相关。异质性分析表明:贸易条件对制造业全要素生产率的影响存在显著的行业异质性,并且贸易条件改善对劳动密集型行业综合技术效率增长有积极影响,对资本技术密集型行业综合技术效率增长具有显著的抑制效应;金融危机前贸易条件改善对综合技术效率增长有显著抑制作用,金融危机后贸易条件改善对综合技术效率增长有显著促进作用。作用机制检验结果显示,贸易条件对制造业全要素生产率的影响主要是通过科研投入强度路径实现的。

Based on the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry from 1999 to 2018,this paper examines the impact of terms of trade on total factor productivity.The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between terms of trade and total factor productivity.Heterogeneity analysis shows that there is significant industry heterogeneity in the impact of terms of trade on manufacturing total factor productivity,and the improvement of terms of trade has a positive impact on the growth of comprehensive technical efficiency in labor-intensive industries,and has a significant inhibitory effect on the growth of comprehensive technical efficiency in capital-and technology-intensive industries.The improvement of terms of trade before the financial crisis has a significant inhibitory effect on the growth of comprehensive technical efficiency,while the improvement of terms of trade after the financial crisis has a significant role in promoting the growth of comprehensive technical efficiency.The mechanism test finds that the impact of terms of trade on total factor productivity is mainly realized through the path of scientific research investment intensity.