我国青贮玉米生产的集聚演变及其作用机制——基于动态空间杜宾模型

Agglomeration evolution and mechanism of feed grain production in China:Based on dynamic spatial Durbin model

为观测青贮玉米生产的动态变化,研究基于2001—2021年我国30个省面板数据,选用重心模型分析青贮玉米生产集聚区域变动。在此基础上,借助动态空间杜宾模型剖析要素投入、社会经济、政策支持对中国青贮玉米生产区域变动的影响。结果表明,我国青贮玉米存在空间聚集现象,即2001—2021年间我国青贮玉米生产量的莫兰指数总体上呈“先降再升再降再升”的发展态势。生产重心演变轨迹结果显示,我国青贮玉米生产区域重心呈现“先东北后西北、西南”的演变趋势。机制结果表明,粮食优势、财政扶持、务工收入增加是推进青贮玉米生产的主要驱动因素;生产基础设备、化肥施用、农业收益对本省份青贮玉米生产具有正向影响,但对相邻省份青贮玉米生产的影响不显著。

To observe the dynamic changes in the silage corn production,the study was based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2021,and used a center of gravity model to analyze the changes in the silage corn production agglomeration areas.On this basis,the dynamic spatial Durbin model was used to analyze the impact of factor input,socio-economic and policy support on regional changes in Chinese silage corn production.The results showed that there was a spatial clustering phenomenon in Chinese silage corn,which meant that the Moran index of Chinese silage corn production from 2001 to 2021 showed an overall development trend of'decreasing-increasing-decreasingincreasing'.The evolution trajectory of the production center showed that the center of gravity in the Chinese silage corn production area showed an evolution trend of'first northeast,then northwest,and southwest'.The results of the mechanism of action indicated that the main driving factors for promoting the production of silage corn were grain advantages,financial support,and increased income from migrant workers.The production infrastructure,fertilizer application,and agricultural benefits had a positive impact on the production of silage corn in this province,but the impact on the production of silage corn in neighboring provinces was not significant.