我国肉羊产业链市场价格传导机制研究

Research on market price transmission mechanism of Chinese mutton sheep industry chain

文章基于2010年5月—2021年12月肉羊产业链市场平均价格数据,探讨上中下游产业链市场对肉羊市场价格传导机制的影响,进而明确我国肉羊产业链市场价格传导机制的长期均衡关系。结果发现,因豆粕价格受多种因素影响,我国肉羊产业链市场价格与豆粕价格不具有长期均衡关系。玉米价格、饲草价格、肉羊出栏价格、品牌羊肉价格、羊肉深加工后价格、表观消费量价格与肉羊产业链市场之间价格传导较为充分,是影响中国肉羊产业链市场价格的主要原因。

Based on the average price data of the mutton sheep industry chain market from May 2010 to December 2021,the study explored the impact of upstream,midstream,and downstream industry chain markets on the price transmission mechanism of the mutton sheep market,and further clarified the long-term equilibrium relationship of the price transmission mechanism of the Chinese mutton sheep industry chain market.The results showed that due to multiple factors affecting the price of soybean meal,there was no long-term equilibrium relationship between the market price of the Chinese mutton sheep industry chain and the price of soybean meal.The price transmission between corn prices,forage prices,mutton sheep market prices,brand mutton prices,deep processed mutton prices,and apparent consumption volume prices is relatively sufficient,which is the main reason for affecting the market prices of the Chinese mutton sheep industry chain.