农产品目标价格保险对蔬菜价格波动影响研究——以大蒜、大葱、大白菜、生姜为例

Research on the Influence of Target Price Insurance on Vegetable Price Fluctuation——Taking Garlic,Scallion,Chinese Cabbage,and Ginger as Examples

加快推进农产品目标价格保险政策,能有效应对农产品价格波动风险,对稳定农业生产、保障农民增收、促进乡村振兴具有重要意义。基于2010-2022年大蒜、大葱、大白菜、生姜价格及蔬菜指数的周度数据,运用格兰杰因果检验和向量自回归(VAR)模型,研究农产品目标价格保险对蔬菜价格波动的影响。研究发现:目标价格保险有助于蔬菜价格保持稳定运行,农产品目标价格保险实施后,所有参保农产品的波动幅度均呈现不同程度的下降,不同品种蔬菜的价格传导影响减弱,受到外部冲击后,蔬菜价格波动幅度也呈现下降趋势,这都将有助于蔬菜价格的稳定,减少市场风险,增强市场稳定性,提升农产品竞争力。最后,建议促进政府引导与市场运作、理论研究与技术操作、数据采集与数据挖掘、价格保险与金融期货等四方面相结合,推动目标价格保险与农业深度融合,更好发挥助力乡村振兴的积极作用。

Accelerating the implementation of target price insurance policies for agricultural products can effectively cope with the risk of agricultural price fluctuations and is of great significance for stabilizing agricultural production,ensuring farmers'income,and promoting rural revitalization.Based on the weekly price data of garlic,scallion,Chinese cabbage,ginger and vegetable index from 2010 to 2022,Granger causality test and vector autoregression regress(VAR)model are used to study the influence of target price insurance on vegetable price volatility.It is found that target price insurance helps vegetable prices to maintain stable operation.After the implementation,the fluc-tuation range of all insured featured agricultural products decreases to varying degrees,the price transmission effect of different varieties of vegetables is weakened,and the fluctuation range of vegetable prices also shows a downward trend after external shocks,which will con-tribute to the stability of vegetable prices and reduce market risks.It will enhance the stability of the market and enhance the competitive-ness of agricultural products.Finally,it is suggested to promote the integration of government guidance and market operation,theoretical re-search and technical operation,data collection and data mining,price insurance and financial futures,and promote the deep integration of target price insurance and agriculture,so as to better play a positive role in promoting rural revitalization.