地方政府专项债偿债空间测度及风险防范研究

Research on the Measurement of Debt Service Space and Risk Prevention of Local Government Special Bonds

有效防范化解地方债务风险,是社会各界关注的重点,一揽子化债方案已提上日程。地方隐性负债的“债券化”作为方案可能的主要措施之一,需要合理评估地方政府债券的偿还空间及风险。目前,专项债券已经成为地方政府债券风险的主要来源。但无论是理论还是实践,对专项债券偿债空间的衡量都存在不足,包括没有充分意识到利息的重要性,对偿债资金匡算过宽等。本文通过逐只计算并加总得到截至2022年底所有存量专项债待偿利息总额的精准数值,然后构建新测度指标,更加全面、准确地测度各地区专项债偿债空间并进行风险评析。研究发现:从静态视角看,各地区专项债偿债空间充分、风险总体可控;从动态视角看,应谨慎把握专项债风险。因此,建议从三方面加强专项债风险防范:一是应当更加重视拓展专项债偿债空间;二是应当更好把握专项债的动态发展;三是应当严肃财经纪律,完善有效防范化解地方债务风险的制度建设。

Effectively preventing and resolving local government debt risks is a focus of attention from all sectors of society,and a set of debt resolution program has been put on the agenda.As the“bondization”of local implicit liabilities may be one of the possible main measures for the program,it is necessary to reasonably measure the repayment space and risks of local government bonds.At present,special bonds have become the main source of risk for local government bonds.However,both in theory and practice,there are shortcomings in measuring the repayment space of special bonds,including insufficient awareness of the importance of interest and excessive estimation of re-payment funds.This article calculates the interest payable of each unmatured special bond,then aggregates all calculated interest to acquire the precise result of the total interest payable of special bonds by the end of 2022,and constructs new measurement indicators to more com-prehensively and accurately measure the repayment space of special bonds in various regions,and then conducts risk analysis.This article finds that from a static perspective,there is sufficient space for special bonds repayment in various regions and the overall risk is controllable;from a dynamic perspective,local governments should deal with special bond risks carefully.Therefore,it should strengthen risk prevention of special bonds from three aspects:firstly,more attention should be paid to expanding the repayment space of special bonds;secondly,local government should better be sure about the dynamic development of special bonds;thirdly,local government should strictly enforce financial discipline and improve the institutional framework for effectively preventing and resolving local debt risks.