基于实物期权定价模型的矿产资源资产价值估算研究——铜矿项目的情景假设与案例实证分析

Study on Estimation of Mineral Resource Asset Value Based on Real Option Pricing Modeling——Case Empirical Evidence and Scenario Hypothesis Analysis of Copper Mining Project

矿业权作为实现矿产资源价值的必然手段,对其科学合理地评估是实现矿产资源优化配置和矿业资本市场发展的基本要求,也是矿业经济持续发展不可或缺的环节。本文考虑离散时间交易和支付红利条件,兼顾风险和利益双目标,根据复制期权极小方差规则提出了新实物期权定价模型。经过数值分析比较,改进模型使其更加贴合实际期权价格。通过案例实证与情景分析可见该模型能够较好地估算矿产资源资产价值,从而提高矿业权价值评估的准确性。基于此,建议以矿产资源基础数据,建立多层次矿产资源资产价值体系;加强矿产资源储量登记数据库建设,实时监控并发布价格动态变化信息;推进核算方式纵深化发展,提高矿产资源价值核算的全面性和准确性。

As an inevitable means to realize the value of mineral resources,the scientific and reasonable evaluation of mineral rights is the basic requirement to realize the optimal allocation of mineral resources and the development of the mining capital market,as well as an indispensable link for the sustainable development of the mining economy.In this paper,considering the discrete-time trading and dividend payment conditions,taking into account the dual objectives of risk and benefit,a new real option pricing model is proposed according to the replication options very small variance rule.After numerical analysis and comparison,the improved model more closely matches the real option price.Through the case empirical evidence and scenario analysis,it can be seen that the model can better estimate the asset value of mineral resources,thus improving the accuracy of the value assessment of mineral rights.Based on this,it is recommended to establish a mul-ti-level mineral resource asset value system based on the basic data of mineral resources;strengthen the construction of the mineral resources reserve registration database,monitor and release the information of price dynamics in real time;and promote the deepening of the ac-counting method to improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the mineral resource value accounting.