基于国际贸易关系的我国输入性疟疾风险来源分析

Analysis on the sources of imported malaria risk in China based on international trade relations

目的探索常态下我国与全球疟疾流行国家之间跨境人口流动情况,评估我国输入性疟疾风险来源地,为输入性疟疾主动监测和早期预警提供方法依据。方法收集2019年全球81个疟疾流行国家疟疾疫情数据、中国海关货物进出口数据以及相关社会、经济和人口数据,构建国际贸易关系驱动的跨境人口流动分析模型,分析全球疟疾流行国家对我国输入疟疾的风险分级。结果全球81个疟疾流行国家主要分布在非洲(45个,占55.6%)、亚洲(17个,占21.0%),全球疟疾疫情高发国家主要分布在撒哈拉以南非洲以及南亚和东南亚地区。我国与全球疟疾流行国家均有贸易往来,其贸易额占比31.0%。模型分析结果显示,非洲中部、西部、拉丁美洲中西部以及东南亚地区是我国输入性疟疾的主要来源地,拉丁美洲南部和大洋洲国家对我国输入性疟疾风险较低。81个疟疾流行国家中,对我国输入性疟疾风险最高的3个国家为南亚的印度、南美洲的巴西和非洲的尼日利亚。结论随着国际交流和人员往来恢复常态,来自非洲中西部和拉丁美洲中西部疟疾流行区以及东南亚疟疾流行区的国家将是我国输入性疟疾的高风险来源地,需要对这些地区的入境人员开展重点监测和防控。

Objective To explore the cross-border population mobility between China and malaria-endemic countries worldwide under normal conditions and evaluate the risk sources of imported malaria in China to provide a methodological basis for proactive surveillance and early warning of imported malaria.Methods Malaria prevalence data from global 81 malaria-endemic countries in 2019,the data of Chinese customs import and export of goods,and relevant social,economic,and demographic data were collected to constructe gravity model for cross-border population mobility driven by international trade relations,and assess the risk classification of imported malaria from malaria-endemic countries worldwide.Results The 81 malaria-endemic countries are mainly located in Africa(45 countries,accounting for 55.56%)and Asia(17 countries,accounting for 20.99%).Countries with high malaria endemicity are primarily in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia,and Southeast Asia.China has trade relationships with all the malaria-endemic countries,accounting for 31.03%of the total trade volume.The model analysis shows that the primary imported malaria risk from countries in central and eastern Africa,South Asia,Southeast Asia,and central-east Latin America.The risk of imported malaria from southern Latin America and Oceania is relatively low.Among the 81 malaria-endemic countries,the three countries with the highest risk of imported malaria to China are India in South Asia,Brazil in South America,and Nigeria in Africa.Conclusion As international exchanges and personnel mobility return to normal,the malaria-endemic countries in central and southern regions of Africa,midwestern Latin America and Southeast Asian are high risk source of imported malaria,thus,it is imperative to exert focusing surveillance and preventive control for the inbound personnel from these risk-regions.