基于传染病预警应用效果评价的预警机制研究

Research on early warning mechanism based on the evaluation ofinfectious disease early warning application effect

目的基于2017—2021年广西传染病自动预警信息系统应用情况,剖析当前传染病预警存在的问题,探讨传染病智慧化预警机制,为提高传染病预警效果提供参考。方法通过Excel 2010软件进行数据整理,采用SPSS 23.0软件进行统计分析。结果2017—2021年广西共发出预警信号120666条,预警信号阳性率、响应率、及时响应率分别为0.22%、100.00%、91.81%。预警信号在时间上主要分布于4~7月和9~10月,且预警信号和传染病发病数呈正相关关系(r=0.85,P<0.05);预警信号主要集中分布于南宁市、桂林市、梧州市等地区;预警病种主要为呼吸道和肠道传染病,不同地区的预警信号阳性率(χ^(2)=155.21,P<0.05)、不同预警方法的预警信号阳性率(χ^(2)=12.48,P<0.05)差异均有统计学意义。结论构建多点触发、多渠道监测的传染病智慧化预警机制是提升传染病早期识别预警能力的关键。

Objective Based on the application of automatic early warning information system for infectious diseases in Guangxi from 2017 to 2021,analyzed the existing problems in early warning of infectious diseases,and discuss the intelligent early warning mechanism of infectious diseases,and provide reference for improving the effectiveness of early warning of infectious diseases.Methods Microsoft Excel 2010 was used for data sorting and SPSS 23.0 software was used for statistical analysis.Results A total of 120666 early warning signals were issued in Guangxi from 2017 to 2021.The positive rate,response rate,and timely response rate of early warning signals were 0.22%,100.00%,and 91.81%,respectively.The early warning signals were mainly distributed from April to July and from September to October,and there was a positive correlation between the early warning signals and the number of infectious disease incidences(r=0.85,P<0.05).The warning signal was mainly concentrated in Nanning,Guilin,Wuzhou and other areas.The early warning diseases were mainly respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases.The positive rate of early warning signals in different regions(χ^(2)=155.21,P<0.05)and different warning methods(χ^(2)=12.48,P<0.05)were statistically significant.Conclusions The key to improve the ability of early identification and warning of infectious diseases is to build an intelligent early warning mechanism of infectious diseases with multi-point trigger and multi-channel surveillance.