辽东湾海冰分布面积历史数据重构及其影响因素分析

Reconstruction of sea ice extent in the Liaodong Bay and analysis of its impact factors

辽东湾是我国冬季冰情最严重的海区,大面积海冰覆盖会对海上经济活动产生严重影响。本文以辽东湾海冰为研究对象,基于MODIS卫星影像资料重构了辽东湾2001-2021年海冰分布面积时间序列。同时,确定了辽东湾浮冰范围与海冰分布面积的非线性关系式,并利用此关系式将辽东湾历史海冰最大分布面积延拓至1953年。通过对其年际变化趋势进行研究,获得工程设计重现期辽东湾海冰分布面积。进一步分析了辽东湾海冰最大分布面积的影响因子,结果表明海冰最大分布面积与冻冰度日及北风分量的相关系数达0.96。此外,分析了秋季北极部分海区海冰密集度与辽东湾冬季海冰覆盖程度的相关性。本文成果可为辽东湾海冰长期趋势研究和海冰灾害的预报预警工作提供基本数据支撑。

Liaodong Bay is the most severely ice-covered sea waters in China during winter.The large area of sea ice on the sea surface has significant impacts on maritime economic activities.This study focuses on reconstructing a time series of sea ice extent from 2001 to 2021 for Liaodong Bay based on MODIS satellite images.Meanwhile,a nonlinear relation between the floe ice distance and sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay is figured out,which is used to extend the historical maximum sea ice extent of Liaodong Bay back to 1953.Then,the interannual variation of the maximum sea ice extent is researched to obtain the sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay in the return period of engineer-ing design.The impact factors of the maximum sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay are analyzed,and the results show that the correlation coefficient between the maximum sea ice extent and the freezing degree-days,as well as north-erly wind component,reached 0.96.Furthermore,the correlation between the sea ice concentration in some regions of the Arctic during autumn and the winter sea ice extent in the Liaodong Bay is analyzed.Our results provide valu-able insights for understanding the trend of sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay and formulating measures for sea ice dis-aster prevention.