政府债务风险判断的“三维度六要素”新框架

A New Framework of“Three Dimensional Six Elements”for Judging Government Debt Risk

正确认识政府债务及其风险判断是关系我国经济社会发展的一个重大问题,也是当前影响我国财政政策提质增效的重要因素。政府债务规模仅是问题的表象,债务规模和风险并非简单的正向线性关系,如果单纯以债务规模为标准判断政府债务风险,就会出现单一逻辑的异化,不能真正判断政府债务的风险。政府债务不仅是政府的债务,更是“国家的债务”,属于经济社会发展的成本,债务问题的实质在于经济发展与债务风险的平衡。针对当前主流债务风险判断方法和标准存在的缺陷,笔者认为应立足国民经济循环和社会经济整体发展,从宏观经济、债务成本与效率及举债偿债能力等方面判断债务风险。为此,本文提出了“三维度六要素”的债务风险判断框架,以便为理论研究和实践决策提供新的视角。

The correct understanding of government debt and its risk judgment is a significant issue related to Chinese economic and social development,and it is also an important factor affecting the quality and efficiency of Chinese fiscal policy.The scale of government debt is only a symptom of the problem.The relationship between debt scale and risk is not a simple positive linear relationship.If debt risk is judged solely based on debt scale,there will be a single logic alienation,and the true risk of government debt cannot be accurately assessed.Government debt is not only the debt of the government,but also the debt of the“nation”,which belongs to the cost of economic and social development.The essence of the debt problem lies in the balance between economic development and debt risks.In view of the shortcomings of the current mainstream debt risk judgment methods and standards,we believe that it is necessary to base on the circular flow of the national economy and the overall development of the social economy,and judge debt risk from macroeconomics,debt costs and efficiency,and borrowing and repayment ability.Therefore,a theoretical framework for debt risk assessment called“Three Dimensions and Six Elements”is proposed to provide a new perspective for theoretical research and practical decision-making.