俄罗斯的货币转型与人民币在俄罗斯经济中的使用

Russia's Currency Transition and the Adoption of Renminbi in Russian Economy

俄乌冲突爆发后,人民币在俄罗斯经济中迅速扩大了使用,推动俄罗斯货币领域发生了结构转型,甚至有人用“元化”来概括这种新现象。文章在梳理俄方相关叙事的基础上,主要根据俄罗斯官方数据定量刻画了人民币在俄罗斯的使用情况,并对其推动因素和影响进行了分析。人民币的扩大使用主要体现在强制性高的主权领域以及俄罗斯贸易商的支付货币转型,而在居民和一般企业的存款和资产配置中的地位仍微不足道。俄乌冲突背景下人民币扩大使用的根本原因,是中国经济实力提供的竞争优势。包括“卢布化”在内其他选项的不可行也决定了俄罗斯不得不进行有利于人民币的“货币转型”。人民币不仅是一种去美元化的工具,还对俄罗斯经济在高压制裁下保持基本稳定发挥了积极作用。中国近期尚无意放开资本账户让人民币自由进出国境,这决定了人民币在俄罗斯作为资产保值增值和投资工具的可能性有限。另一方面,随着俄罗斯离岸市场人民币资金池扩大,其反向作用于我国内汇率形成乃至金融稳定的风险也将增加。制裁本身也为中俄金融和经济合作设置了诸多限制。所以,俄罗斯的“去美元化”不可能是完全的“元化”,人民币在俄罗斯的扩大使用也不会威胁美元在国际货币领域的主导地位。

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the adoption of the RMB in Russian economy has rapidly been expanded,promoting structural transition in Russian currency.Some even use the term“renminbization”to summarize this new phenomenon.Based on combing relevant Russian narratives,the paper quantitatively depicts the adoption of the RMB in Russia mainly according to Russian official data,and analyzes its driving factors and impacts.The expansion in the adoption of the RMB is mainly reflected in the highly coercive sovereign fields and the payment currency transition of Russian traders,while its status in both deposits and asset allocation of residents and enterprises is still negligible.The root cause for the expansion in the adoption of the RMB against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is competitive advantages of China's economic strength.The unfeasibility of other options including rubleization also determines that Russia has to transit in currency which is beneficial to the RMB.The RMB is not only a tool for de-dollarization,but also plays a positive role in maintaining basic stability of the Russian economy against high-pressure sanctions.China has no intention,in the near future,to liberalize its capital account and allow the RMB to enter and exit the country freely,which determines the limited possibility of the RMB being used as an asset preservation,appreciation and investment tool.On the other hand,as the RMB capital pool in Russia's offshore market expands,the risk of its adverse effect on China's domestic exchange rate formation and even financial instabilities will also increase.Sanctions themselves also set many obstacles on Sino-Russian financial and economic cooperation.Therefore,Russia's de-dollarization cannot be a complete renminbization,and the expanded use of RMB in Russia will not threaten the dominance of the U.S.dollar in the international monetary system.