台湾贸易政策不确定性对两岸农产品贸易的影响

The Effect of Taiwan’s Trade Policy Uncertainty on Cross-strait Agricultural Trade

【目的/意义】贸易政策不确定性是影响国际贸易的重要因素。考察我国台湾地区贸易政策不确定性对两岸农产品贸易的影响,为有效应对贸易政策不确定性以及促进两岸农产品贸易提供启示。【方法/过程】从关税贸易不确定性、政治冲击和技术性贸易壁垒三方面综合度量贸易政策不确定性,运用不确定性扩展引力模型和双向固定效应估计方法,实证检验台湾地区贸易政策不确定性对(台湾对内地)农产品出口的影响,并通过二元分解进一步考察贸易的影响机制。【结果/结论】研究发现:关税政策不确定性程度下降使农产品出口增加,政治冲击和技术性贸易壁垒均导致农产品出口显著下降;贸易政策不确定性对果蔬类、畜类和水产类三类出口有显著影响;贸易政策不确定性主要是通过集约边际来影响农产品出口,但技术性贸易壁垒同时通过集约边际和扩展边际来影响农产品出口;台湾地区贸易政策不确定性对两岸农产品贸易的影响不存在滞后性。

【Objective/Meaning】Trade policy uncertainty is an important factor affecting international trade.Studying the effect of Taiwan’s trade policy uncertainty on cross-strait agricultural trade plays an important part of revelation in how to effectively deal with trade policy uncertainty and promoting cross-strait agricultural trades.【Methods/Procedures】Trade policy uncertainty is measured by tariff trade uncertainty,political shock and technical barriers to trade.Based on the uncertainty-augmented gravity model and the two-way fixed effects model,this paper estimates and quantifies the impact of Taiwan’s trade policy uncertainty on Taiwan’s agricultural exports to the Mainland.Besides,the influencing mechanism of trade is further evaluated by dual decomposition.【Results/Conclusions】The paper finds that reduced tariff trade uncertainty increased Taiwan’s agricultural exports to the Mainland,but political shock and technical barriers to trade lowered the agricultural exports.Trade policy uncertainty had a significant impact on the exports of fruits and vegetables,livestock and aquatic products.These influences were realized mainly through the intensive trade margin and had no lag,but the effect of technical barriers to trade on the agricultural exports was realized by both the intensive trade margin and the extensive trade margin.