江西省农业温室气体排放趋势及减排潜力

Trends and Emission Reduction Potential of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Jiangxi Province

掌握农业温室气体的排放规律对我国实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的战略目标具有重要作用。基于江西省2011~2020年农业数据资料,阐明了江西省农业温室气体(甲烷、氧化亚氮)的二氧化碳排放当量在种植业、养殖业和能源消耗领域的排放水平和时空演变规律;并用STIRPAT模型在多情景模式下模拟分析了江西省在2030年和2060年的减排潜力。结果表明:2011~2020年江西省农业温室气体排放总量为3686.91~3967.56万t,呈先升高后下降的趋势;空间上呈现西高东低、南高北低的分布特征。种植业、养殖业和能源消耗年均产生的二氧化碳排放当量占比分别约为71.5%、26.9%和1.6%;种植业中稻田甲烷和农用地氧化亚氮的二氧化碳排放当量的占比分别为72.77%和27.23%;养殖业中动物肠道甲烷、动物粪便甲烷和动物粪便氧化亚氮的二氧化碳排放当量的占比分别为31.53%、43.90%和24.57%。在基准发展模式和低碳发展模式下的预测结果表明,2030年江西省农业温室气体排放降幅将达到国家要求,分别为12.66%和14.91%。因此,在满足江西省农业生产目标的基础上,江西省农业的减排固碳应聚焦种植业和养殖业,特别是控制农业甲烷排放源。在我国“双碳”目标的战略背景下,可以为未来推进江西省农业减排固碳工作的实施提供建议。

The mastering the emission law of agricultural greenhouse gases plays an important role in China's strategic goal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".Based on the agricultural data of Jiangxi Province from 2011~2020,this study elucidated the emission level and spatio-temporal evolution of carbon dioxide equivalent of agricultural greenhouse gases(methane and nitrous oxide)in planting,aquaculture and energy consumption in Jiangxi Province.The emission reduction potential of Jiangxi Province in 2030 and 2060 is simulated and analyzed by STIRPAT model under multiple scenarios.The results showed that the total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Jiangxi Province from 2011~2020 were 3686.91~39.6756 million tons,showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.Spatially,it showed the distribution characteristics of high west and low east,high south and low north.The average annual carbon dioxide emissions equivalent of planting industry,aquaculture industry and energy consumption accounted for about 71.5%,26.9%and 1.6%respectively,and the carbon dioxide equivalent of paddy methane and agricultural nitrous oxide in planting industry accounted for 72.77%and 27.23%respectively.The carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of animal intestinal methane,animal feces methane and animal feces nitrous oxide accounted for 31.53%,43.90%and 24.57%,respectively.The forecast results under the baseline development model and the low-carbon development model showed that the reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Jiangxi Province in 2030 will meet the national requirements,12.66%and 14.91%respectively.It is hoped that this study could provide ideas,measures and policy suggestions for promoting agricultural emission reduction and carbon sequestration in Jiangxi Province in the future under the background of China's"dual carbon"strategic goal.