2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病发病趋势分析

Joinpoint Regression Model Analysis on Epidemiological Secular Trends in Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Nantong Rudong Country from 2000 to 2021

目的:分析2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病发病趋势,为政府制定糖尿病防控策略提供科学依据。方法:收集2000—2021年如东县区域卫生信息平台和医院信息系统(HIS)中的新发2型糖尿病病例,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析2型糖尿病发病率变化特征,计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),预测并验证2022年糖尿病发病水平。结果:2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病平均粗发病率为259.75/10万,标化发病率总体呈上升趋势,从2000年的51.27/10万上升到2021年的139.83/10万,AAPC为7.76%;2012年是发病率变化转折点,2000—2012年APC=18.67%,2型糖尿病发病率快速上升;2012—2021年APC=-5.24%,发病率缓慢下降。男性粗发病率为198.07/10万,标化率为118.73/10万;女性粗发病率为318.89/10万,标化率为197.03/10万。女性发病率高于男性,差异有统计学意义(Z=4.41,P<0.05)。45~74岁人群2型糖尿病发病率呈波动性变化。结论:2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病发病率总体先上升后缓慢下降,糖尿病仍是如东县实施综合防控策略的主要慢性病,女性、45~74岁人群是该地区2型糖尿病重点防控对象。

OBJECTIVE The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes in Rudong County was analyzed to provide scientific basis for the government to formulate diabetes prevention and control strategy.METHODS New cases of type 2 diabetes were collected from the regional health information platform and Hospital Information System(HIS)in Rudong County from 2000 to 2021.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change characteristics of the incidence of type 2 diabetes,and the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.To predict and verify the level of diabetes incidence in 2022.RESULTS From 2000 to 2021,the average crude incidence of type 2 diabetes in Rudong County was 259.75/105 and the standardized incidence showed an overall upward trend,from 51.27/105 to 139.83/105 with an average annual percentage change(AAPC)of 7.76%.The year of 2012 was the change node,the annual change percentage(APC)from 2000 to 2012 was 18.67%,and the incidence of type 2 diabetes increased rapidly.The APC from 2012 to 2021 was-5.24%,and the incidence rate decreased slow⁃ly.The crude incidence of male was 198.07/105 and the standardized rate was 118.73/105 while the crude incidence of female was 318.89/105 and the standardized rate was 197.03/105.The incidence of female was higher than that of male,and the difference was statistically significant(Z=4.41,P<0.05).The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus fluctuated in the 45~74 years old population.CONCLUSION From 2000 to 2021,the incidence of type 2 diabetes in Rudong county increased first and then decreased slowly.Dia⁃betes is still the main chronic disease implemented by comprehensive prevention and control strategy in Rudong county,and women and people aged 45 to 74 are the key prevention and control objects of type 2 diabetes in this region.