家庭信贷与消费结构优化——基于2019CHFS家庭微观数据的实证分析

Household Credit and Consumption Structure Optimization:An Empirical Analysis Based on the 2019 CHFS Household Microdata

文章基于2019年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),从理论和实证层面对家庭信贷偏好以及家庭消费结构优化进行分析。结果表明,风险厌恶程度和收入的负向冲击等因素使得中国家庭更偏好于非正规信贷;信贷方式对家庭消费结构优化的差异性表明,相较于非正规信贷,正规信贷在家庭恩格尔系数及高层次消费占比上的表现更为优异,同时信贷金额的增加也显著提高了家庭消费总量。进一步实证分析发现,选择正规信贷能够更大程度上促进从事生产经营、拥有农业收入的非低保家庭的消费结构优化;调节效应表明,加大生产经营信贷投入能够强化信贷方式对家庭消费结构优化的积极效应。因此,为刺激家庭提升消费总量和优化消费结构,尤其是增加低收入群体的消费能力,后续政策应着力改善家庭信贷环境。

This article,based on the 2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data,analyzes household credit preferences and the optimization of household consumption structure from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The results show that factors such as risk aversion and the negative impact of income lead Chinese households to prefer informal credit;the differences in household consumption structure optimization due to the credit methods indicate that,compared to informal credit,formal credit performs better in terms of household Engel coefficient and the proportion of higher-level consumption,and the increase in credit amount also significantly enhances total household consumption.Further empirical analysis finds that choosing formal credit can more effectively promote the optimization of consumption structure in non-low-income households engaged in production and business activities and with agricultural income;the moderating effect shows that increasing investment in production and business credit can enhance the positive effect of credit methods on the optimization of household consumption structure.Therefore,to stimulate the increase and optimization of household consumption,especially to enhance the consumption capacity of low-income groups,subsequent policies should focus on improving the household credit environment.