2023年前三季度中国经济形势分析及四季度展望

Analysis of Economic Situation in the First Three Quarters of 2023 and Outlook for the Fourth Quarter

前三季度中国国内生产总值同比增长5.2%,国民经济持续恢复。本文从生产、需求、收入和价格四个角度入手对前三季度经济运行的若干特点进行总结,并剖析三季度GDP增速略超预期的原因以及当前经济发展存在的突出问题。具体来说,从生产角度看,第三产业增加值增速表现突出,是经济恢复的主要支撑力;从需求角度看,消费需求对经济增长的拉动作用明显提升,但投资需求和净出口需求的拉动作用减弱;从收入角度看,居民收入保持稳定增长,工业企业利润降幅持续收窄;从价格角度看,消费领域价格增速由降转稳,生产领域价格降幅收窄。当前经济发展仍面临房地产市场持续低迷、第三产业中多数行业增加值增速与疫情前仍存在较大差距等问题。此外,本文还对2023年四季度经济运行情况进行了展望。

Gross domestic product(GDP)in the first three quarters of 2023 sees a yearon-year rise of 5.2%,and the national economy continued to recover.This article summarizes several features of the economic operation in the first three quarters from the perspectives of production,demand,income and price,and analyzes the reasons for the slightly higherthan-expected GDP growth rate in the third quarter,as well as the prominent problems of the current economic development.Specifically,from the perspective of production,the tertiary industry has shown remarkable growth in value-added,serving as the main driving force behind economic recovery;from the perspective of demand,the pulling effect of consumer demand on economic growth has been significantly enhanced,while the pulling effect of investment demand and net export demand has been weakened;from the perspective of income,residents income has maintained a steady growth,while the decline in the industrial enterprise profits has continued to narrow;from a price perspective,the growth rate of consumer prices has stabilized after a decline,while the decline in prices in the production sector has narrowed.The current economic development still faces issues such as the continuous downturn in the real estate market and the large gap in the growth rate of value-added in most industries of the tertiary sector compared to the pre-pandemic period.In addition,this paper also provides an outlook for the economic operation in the fourth quarter of 2023.