改进模糊优先规划和向量夹角余弦在综合管廊运维风险评估中的应用

Application of improved fuzzy preference programming and vector angle cosine in the risk evaluation for the utility tunnels operation and maintenance

为科学合理地明确综合管廊运维风险等级,确定影响综合管廊运维风险的敏感性指标,提出改进模糊优先规划和向量夹角余弦下的综合管廊运维风险评估方法。通过分析综合管廊运维风险指标特征,以物理-事理-人理(Wuli-Shili-Renli,WSR)理论为基础,从人员因素、配套设施、管线及管道、环境因素、管理因素、管廊主体、信息化水平7个方面构建综合管廊运维风险评估指标体系;引入容差参数对模糊优先规划进行改进,得到指标最终权重;利用向量夹角余弦计算待评价目标与理想目标的贴进度,求得综合管廊运维风险等级,同时对指标进行单因素敏感性分析,得出影响综合管廊运维风险的敏感性指标。将该方法运用到上海安亭新镇综合管廊运维风险评估中,结果表明,该综合管廊运维风险等级为Ⅱ级(较低风险),并指出通风/照明/消防设施、管线老化或破损情况、投料口非法入侵、管廊内部H_(2)S质量浓度、结构裂缝与渗水是影响综合管廊运维风险的敏感性指标,并结合静安亭综合管廊实际运维情况提出应对措施,以期为综合管廊运维风险管理提供可行性建议。

To scientifically determine the risk level and further effectively identify sensitive factors for utility tunnel operation and maintenance,this paper innovatively attempts to propose a new comprehensive risk assessment method based on improved fuzzy preference programming and vector angle cosine.Firstly,based on the Wuli-Shili-Renli(WSR) theory,the risk evaluation indicator system was constructed from the following seven dimensions:personnel,supporting facilities,pipelines,environment,management,the structure of utility tunnels,and information level by integrating the specific characteristics of the operation and maintenance risk of the utility tunnels.On this basis,the weight of each risk indicator was obtained by applying the improved fuzzy preference programming method which introduces tolerance parameters.Furthermore,the risk level of utility tunnel operation and maintenance was finally determined based on the variable of progress between the target to be evaluated and the desired target by utilizing the Vector Angle Cosine method.Meanwhile,this study carried out a sensitivity analysis to effectively identify which factors were more susceptible during the operation and maintenance of utility tunnels.Finally,empirical analysis and verification were carried out based on the utility tunnels during operation and maintenance in Anting New Town,Shanghai,intending to prove the validity of the risk assessment method proposed in this paper.The results show that its risk level is Ⅱ,which belongs to the low-risk range.Five sensitivity indicators(the ventilation/lighting/fire protection facilities,aging or breakage of the pipeline,illegal occupation of the feeding port,H_(2S) concentration inside the pipeline corridor,structural cracks,and water seepage) were pointed out.The corresponding targeted measures were put forward according to the actual operation and maintenance of Anting New Town.This paper is expected to have important application value for risk management of the utility tunnel operation and maintenance.