基于物元可拓模型的机场飞行区安全风险评价及影响程度分析

Safety risk assessment and influence degree analysis of the flight area based on the matter-element extension theory

为有效解决机场飞行区安全风险因素多、关系复杂、难量化的问题,运用“人-机-环-管”系统工程理论,将影响机场飞行区安全的因素分为4大类,共24个风险因素,构建机场飞行区安全风险多级评估指标体系。采用决策实验室分析法(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)结合解释结构模型(Interpretative Structural Modeling Method,ISM)对风险因素间的相互影响程度进行分析,挖掘出表层因子、中层因子和深层因子,从而构建多级递阶层次结构模型以表示风险因素间的复杂关系。利用DEMATEL和层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)进行博弈组合赋权,建立物元可拓模型以对机场飞行区安全风险进行评估。运用物元可拓模型对某机场进行实例分析,结果显示评价结果与该机场实际风险水平基本一致,表明模型具有可行性。

To estimate the safety level of airport flight area systems in operation effectively and security,a model for assessing safety level based on the matter-element extension theory model is constructed.The airport flight area is characterized by numerous and complex risk factors,which are prone to aviation accidents.Scientific and effective assessment of airport flight area safety risks has significant implications for the improvement of operation safety.This paper is divided into four parts.In the first part,we divide the influencing factors into four categories,a total of 24 risk factors based on the “man-machine-environment-management” system engineering theory.In the second part,we construct a multi-level assessment index system for the safety risk of the airport flight area.In the third part,the DEMATEL-ISM method is used to analyze the interaction degree of risk factors.We build a multi-level hierarchical structure model to express the complex relationship and analyze the interaction between these risk factors by finding out the surface,middle and deep factors.In the fourth part,considering that the determination of a single weight is susceptible to subjective factors and ignores the correlation between risk factors.A new combination weighting approach is proposed using DEMATEL and AHP methods.And matter-element extension evaluation model is established based on game theory combination weighting to evaluate the safety risk of the airport flight area.Besides,we use a case to show this model.The evaluation results show that the risk level of the airport is medium and the safety awareness of the airport staff needs to be strengthened.The viability and confidence of the model in the safety evaluation of the flight area in operation are proved.This safety assessment has a guiding significance to the flight area system and provides a base for further research.