基于碳税机制的碳市场与电力市场协同建模

ColLaborative modelling between carbon market and electricity market based on carbon tax mechanism

挖掘碳市场和电力市场之间的耦合机理,抓住核心影响因素来促进多市场协同发展,是从经济层面实现我国“双碳”目标的关键。文章聚焦碳税机制,构建碳市场与电力市场的耦合框架,并基于系统动力学构建一种基于碳税机制的碳市场与电力市场协同系统动力学模型,运用Vensim仿真分析单一碳交易政策与碳税机制下,不同碳税价格、碳税机制开征时间等因素对火力机组发电成本、发电量和装机量的影响。研究结果表明:恰当的碳税机制开征时间能实现碳税“双重红利”效应;碳税机制能有效缓解“碳泄漏”,对于碳排总量控制与能源结构调整有关键作用。

Exploring the coupling mechanism between the carbon market and the electricity market,and grasping the core influencing factors to promote the coordinated development of multiple markets,is the key to achieving China's"dual carbon"goals from an economic perspective.A coupling framework between the carbon market and the electricity market is constructed according to the carbon tax mechanism,and a collaborative system dynamics model between the carbon market and the electricity market based on the carbon tax mechanism is constructed based on system dynamics.By means of Vensim simulation analysis,the impact of different carbon tax prices,carbon tax mechanism implementation time,and other factors on the cost,output,and installed capacity of thermal power units under a single carbon trading policy and carbon tax mechanism is analyzed.The research results indicate that an appropriate carbon tax mechanism can achieve a“double dividend”effect of carbon tax.The carbon tax mechanism can effectively alleviate carbon leakage and plays a key role in controlling total carbon emissions and adjusting energy structure.