陕西省粮食安全水平评价及预测研究

Research on the evaluation and forecasting of food security level in Shaanxi Province

【目的】为解决陕西省粮食供需日益突出的矛盾找出对策。【方法】在分析陕西省人口变动及粮食供需现状的基础上,通过计算2004—2020年陕西省耕地赤字率,对当前陕西省粮食安全水平进行评价。在此基础上,运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对未来10 a陕西省粮食安全水平进行预测。【结果】随着人均粮食消费量的增长,陕西省耕地赤字率持续增长;未来10 a陕西省粮食供需剪刀差不断扩大。【结论】加强耕地保护力度,优化土地资源利用;强化农业科技创新;稳定粮食价格;完善粮食储备体系有利于改善陕西省粮食供需矛盾日益突出的问题,保障粮食安全。

【Objective】This research aims to find out countermeasures to solve the increasingly prominent contradiction between food supply and demand in Shaanxi Province.【Method】On the basis of analysing the population change and the current situation of food supply and demand in Shaanxi Province,the current level of food security in Shaanxi Province is evaluated by calculating the deficit rate of arable land in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2020.On this basis,the grey prediction model GM(1,1)is used to predict the level of food security in Shaanxi Province in the next 10 a.【Result】With the growth of per capita food consumption,the arable land deficit rate in Shaanxi Province continues to grow,the scissors gap between food supply and demand in Shaanxi Province keeps expanding in the next 10 a.【Conclusion】Taking measures like strengthening the protection of arable land and optimising the use of land resources,strengthening agricultural science and technology innovation,stabilising food prices,establishing a sound food reserve system will help to improve the growing contradiction between food supply and demand in Shaanxi Province and guarantee food security.