环黄渤海省(市)海岸带可持续发展的生态韧性研究

Study on coastal zone ecological resilience of provinces and cities around the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea based on sustainable development theory

随着海洋生态环境的不断变化,海岸带面临的不确定性扰动也在不断增加,海岸带的韧性水平与海岸带生态的可持续性直接相关。本文依据韧性理论,明确海岸带生态韧性内涵,基于模糊物元分析法构建评价指标体系,利用2011-2019年环黄渤海各省(市)的数据,通过模型对海岸带生态韧性进行时空特征和障碍度分析,并提出改善海岸带生态韧性的建议。结果显示:山东、河北海岸带生态韧性水平较高,可持续发展态势良好;天津生态韧性水平较差,但趋势向好;辽宁、江苏近年生态韧性有下降趋势;环渤海区和北黄海区的海岸带生态韧性呈逐渐上升趋势,南黄海区呈下降趋势。海洋生境状况和生态响应强度是制约环黄渤海地区海岸带生态韧性的主要障碍因素。

With the continuous change of the marine ecological environment,the uncertainty disturbance faced by the coastal zone is also increasing.The resilience of the coastal zone directly affects the sustainable development of the coastal zone ecology.Based on the theory of resilience,this paper clarifies the connotation of coastal zone ecological resilience,builds an evaluation index system based on the fuzzy matter-element analysis method,uses the data of provinces and cities around the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea from 2011 to 2019,analyzes the space-time characteristics and barriers of coastal zone ecological resilience through the model,and puts forward suggestions to improve the coastal zone ecological resilience.The results show that the coastal zone of Shandong and Hebei has a high level of ecological resilience and a good trend of sustainable development.The ecological resilience level of Tianjin is low,but the trend is getting better.The ecological resilience of Liaoning and Jiangsu has declined in recent years.The ecological resilience of the coastal zone around the Bohai Sea and the North Yellow Sea is gradually rising,while that of the South Yellow Sea is declining.The status of marine habitat and the intensity of ecological response are the main obstacles to the ecological resilience of the coastal zone around the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea.