资本脱实向虚矫正新思路:基于市场结构的非对称性

A New Approach to Rectifying Capital from Real to Virtual:Asymmetry Based on Market Structure

资本“脱实向虚”严重制约着实体经济发展,优化资本配置成为实体经济高质量发展的重要着力点。从“脱实向虚”现象的成因机制展开分析,探讨治理资本“脱实向虚”的新思路。运用动态优化方法推导出满足社会福利最大化目标的最优垄断加价率计算公式,并对比分析1998—2020年中国、美国、德国多部门最优垄断加价率与实际加价率间的量化关系。研究发现:(1)加入世界贸易组织(WTO)是中国资本“脱实向虚”的起点;(2)中国、美国、德国实体经济产品的实际利润率普遍低于最优利润率,并且中国制造业产品的实际利润率低于其他国家;(3)美国和德国虚拟经济实际利润率的增长并未导致其实体经济实际利润率的相对(相对于最优利润率)下降,虚拟经济的发展并未以牺牲实体经济为代价,而中国存在生产性资本逃逸至虚拟经济现象。因此,应深化改革当前金融体系,调整市场结构非对称性,以更好地服务实体经济。

The report from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China underscores the imperative of prioritizing the real economy for sustained economic development.Emphasizing the need to leverage real economic growth to propel national economic progress,the report recognizes the challenges posed by a constrained space for capital investment and the escalating difficulty of technological advancement amid narrowing international technology differentials.Despite the imperative to optimize capital allocation as a catalyst for high-quality economic development,the prevailing trend sees capital heavily favoring the fictitious economy.This divergence results in a pronounced siphoning effect on the real economy,a phenomenon colloquially referred to in the academic community as capital“shifting from real to fictitious”.This article delves into the causes and governance of the issue of capital“shifting from real to fictitious”.It focuses on exploring strategies that mitigate or eliminate the investment income gap between the real and fictitious sectors,aiming to eradicate the inherent driving force of capital“shifting from real to fictitious”.This lays a solid foundation for the formulation of policy recommendations in the future.To operationalize this strategy,the article employs data from the Wind database,“China Statistical Yearbook”,“China Economic Network Statistical Database”,and the“OECD Database”.Using dynamic optimization methods to maximize social welfare,it derives the optimal profit margin calculation formula for each sector.A comparative analysis,spanning 1998 to 2020,examines the quantitative relationship between the optimal and actual profit margins in various departments in China,the United States,Germany,and other countries.The empirical results show that the actual profit margin of real economy products in various countries is generally lower than the optimal profit margin,while the actual profit margin of manufacturing products in China is even lower than that of other countries.The growth offictitious economy real profit margins in the United States and Germany has not led to a relative(relative to optimal)decline in their real economy real profit margins,while China has experienced a relative decline in real economy profit margins.Joining the WTO is the starting point for China’s capital to shift from real to fictitious.Diverging from previous literature,this article innovatively measures the strength of the“shifting from real tofictitious”driving force by evaluating the difference between actual and optimal profit rates.Dynamic optimization methods derive formulas for calculating optimal markup rates,providing a nuanced perspective on capital inflow and outflow.The article demonstrates that a significant gap between actual and optimal profit margins signals a strong driving force for capital outflow,offering a more nuanced understanding than previous industry-based assessments.This perspective unveils the intricate capital allocation dynamics across economic sectors,elucidating the disadvantaged position of the real economy and enhancing the precision and efficacy of policy recommendations.