中国家庭能源转型的环境—健康—低碳效益及经济成本

Air Quality,Public Health,and Low Carbon Co-benefits and Economic Costs of Household Energy Transition in China

家庭能源绿色低碳转型是一个关系到中国数亿居民福祉且待妥善解决的问题。基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据研究发现,使用天然气或电力替代散煤等固体燃料能显著降低暴露人群慢性阻塞性肺疾病、心脏病和中风等疾病的患病概率。在此基础上,以陕西省家庭能源转型为例,利用患病概率估计值测算居民健康改善带来的环境效益,同时考虑温室气体减少的低碳协同效益以及转型的经济成本,全面评估三种家庭能源清洁转型方式的净效益。结果表明,基于陕西省的电力结构和能源价格等现状,三种转型方式的净效益均为负,不同转型方式的负效益程度具有明显差别。为了加快家庭部门实现清洁能源转型,短期内需要政府通过提供补贴等方式引导支持居民采用高效的用能设备,同时加快天然气市场完善和电力部门清洁低碳化转型。

Over an extended period,the household sector has heavily relied on energy consumption,particularly solid fuels like coal,resulting in significant environmental and health consequences.This outdated energy utilization approach has severely contaminated residents’living environments,posing a substantial threat to their health,and significantly contributing to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions through widespread decentralized coal combustion.Addressing these challenges necessitates a transition away from the extensive rural heating model.However,there is a critical research gap in quantitatively assessing the economic costs and benefits of different transition pathways,especially considering the specific context of Chinese household energy consumption and transition scenarios.This gap is pivotal in shaping effective government and household transition strategies.Utilizing data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS),this study reveals that substituting solid fuels like coal with natural gas or electricity can significantly reduce the probability of individuals suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,heart diseases,stroke,and related ailments.Leveraging the case of household energy transition in Shaanxi Province,we assess the environmental benefits resulting from improved resident health,while also considering the additional benefits of reduced carbon emissions and the economic costs associated with this transition.Our study comprehensively assesses the net benefits associated with three transition pathways:“coal to gas”,which replaces coal heaters with wall-mounted natural gas heaters,“coal to electricity with heat pumps”,which replaces coal heaters with air source heat pumps,and“coal to electricity with resistance heaters”,which replaces coal heaters with resistance heaters with thermal storage.Results indicate that,given the current state of electricity generation and energy prices in Shaanxi,all three transition pathways result in negative net benefits.However,the extent of negative net benefits varies significantly among these pathways,with transitioning to heat storage electric heaters yielding considerably lower net benefits compared to using natural gas or energy-efficient air source heat pumps.Furthermore,due to their higher electricity consumption,heat storage electric heaters pose an elevated risk of carbon emissions in power generation structures heavily reliant on fossil fuels.To expedite the clean energy transformation of the household sector,short-term government guidance and support are needed,offering subsidies and incentives for the adoption of energy-efficient equipment.In addition,efforts should focus on accelerating the development of the natural gas market and promoting the clean and low-carbon transformation of the power generation sector.This study contributes in two primary aspects compared to previous literature.First,unlike many previous studies constrained to specific regions,our research employs a comprehensive and large sample size dataset,offering a more representative depiction of the overall situation.Second,existing research on the impacts of energy consumption has predominantly focused on outdoor pollution,with limited exploration into indoor air quality and its effects on public health.We take Shaanxi as a case study and consider multiple factors such as heating demand,electricity structure,and fuel prices to provide a comprehensive comparison of different transition pathways.This research facilitates the interdisciplinary application of economics in the realms of environment,health,and climate change,providing decision-making insights for governments in formulating and implementing policies for household energy transition.Ultimately,it aims to accelerate the adoption of clean energy sources in households and contribute to national goals such as“Beautiful China”and“Carbon Neutrality”.