山东省农业面源污染的时空特征和来源分析

Temporal-spatial characteristics and source analysis of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province

【目的】探讨山东省农业面源污染的空间特征、来源和发展趋势。【方法】通过单元调查法和输出系数法对2000—2020年山东省及各地市农业面源污染不同污染源的化学需氧量(COD)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)的排放总量、等标排放量、单位面积排污强度、万元产值排污量等指标进行核算。【结果】2000—2020年山东省农业面源污染物等标排放量下降29.43%;TN和TP等标排放量贡献率年均值占比分别为51.48%和38.70%,两者贡献率达到90%以上;畜禽养殖为山东省最主要农业面源污染源,对TN和TP贡献率占60%以上;万元产值排污量呈下降趋势;单位面积排污强度在西部地区较高,东部地区较低,呈现出西高东低的特点。潍坊和临沂为高污染区,德州、菏泽和聊城为较高污染区;农业面源污染泰尔指数的区域内差异贡献率均值为97.8%、区域间均值为2.2%。【结论】山东省农业面源污染整体呈现下降趋势,但农业生产的粗放经营特点仍然较为突出;污染物中贡献率最高的是TN,畜禽养殖是山东省农业面源污染最主要来源;单位面积排污强度东、西部差异明显;农业面源污染排放量较高的地区主要分布在中部和西部农业发达且人口稠密的地区;省内农业面源污染的区域差异在逐渐缩小,区域内差异贡献度远大于区域间贡献度。

【Objective】To explore the spatial characteristics,source,and development trend of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province.【Methods】Inventory analysis and output coefficient method were used to calculate the total emission of chemical oxygen demand(COD),total nitrogen(TN),and total phosphorus(TP),equivalent standard emission,emission intensity per unit area,emission per 10000 yuan output value of agricultural non-point source pollution from different sources in Shandong Province and various cities from 2000 to 2020.【Results】From 2000 to 2020,the equivalent standard emission of agricultural non-point source pollution decreased by 29.43%in Shandong Province.The average annual contribution rates of equivalent standard emission of TN and TP were 51.48%and 38.70%,respectively,with contribution rates of the two over 90%.Livestock and poultry breeding was the main agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province with TN and TP contribution rates over 60%.The emission per 10000 yuan output value had decreasing trend.Emission intensity per unit area was high in the west and low in the east.Weifang and Linyi were the high pollution areas.Dezhou,Heze and Liaocheng were the relatively high pollution areas.The average contribution rate of intra-regional differences in the Theil index of agricultural non-point source pollution was 97.8%,and the average inter-regional rate was 2.2%.【Conclusion】The overall trend of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province was decreasing,but the extensive management characteristics of agricultural production were still prominent.The pollutant with the highest contribution rate was TN.Livestock and poultry breeding was the main source of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province.Difference in emission intensity per unit area between the eastern and the western regions was predominant.The areas with high agricultural non-point source pollution emissions were mainly distributed in the central and western regions with developed agriculture and dense population.The regional differences of agricultural non-point source pollution in the province were gradually narrowing.And the contribution of intra-regional differences was much greater than that of inter-regional differences.