气候灾害、农产品价格策略和农户生计脆弱性——来自生态搬迁安置区的考察

Climate disasters,agricultural product pricing strategies,and farmers' livelihoodvulnerability——Investigation rom ecological relocation and resettlement area

在生态搬迁大背景下,农户面临的外部环境、内在心理和应对策略均发生了明显转变,有必要从外部扰动与内部适应的视角探究农户生计脆弱性。基于生计脆弱性理论,探讨实际气候灾害、感知气候灾害和农产品价格策略对农户生计脆弱性的影响,基于广东韶关南水湖生态搬迁安置区425位农户的调研数据进行验证。通过单因素方差分析、回归分析和Bootstrap中介效应检验,得出结论:首先,生态搬迁安置区农户感知气候灾害有其特殊性,与村子位置、社会关系和生计转换能力有关;其次,实际气候灾害和感知气候灾害均会加剧农户生计脆弱性,但感知气候灾害的影响力大于实际气候灾害,这与以往研究观点不同,也反映出农户对于气候灾害的担忧心理较为突出;最后,气候灾害及其后续的农产品价格策略是影响农户生计脆弱性的重要因素。

In the context of ecological relocation,the external environment,internal psychology,and coping strategies faced by farmers have undergone significant changes.It is necessary to explore the farmers' livelihoodvulnerability from the perspectives of external disturbance and internal adaptation.Based on the theory of livelihood vulnerability,this paper explores the impact of actual climate disasters,perceived climate disasters,and agricultural product pricing strategies on the farmers' livelihoodvulnerability,and verifies the results based on the survey data of 425 farmers in theecological relocation and resettlement area of Nanshui Lake in Shaoguan,Guangdong Province.Through one-way ANOVA,regression analysis,and Bootstrap mediation effect test,it was found that:Firstly,the perception of climate disasters by farmers in ecological relocation and resettlement area has its particularity,which is related to village location,social relationships,and livelihood transformation ability;Secondly,both actual and perceived climate disasters can exacerbate farmers' livelihoodvulnerability,but the impact of perceived climate disasters is greater than that of actual climate disasters,which is different from previous research perspectives and reflects the prominent psychological concerns of farmers about climate disasters;Finally,climate disasters and their subsequent agricultural product pricing strategies are important factors affecting farmers' livelihoodvulnerability.