中国与RCEP成员国的数字服务贸易格局、贸易效率及潜力研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

Research on the pattern,efficiency and potential of digital services trade between China and RCEP member countries——Based on stochastic frontier gravity model

基于HM指数和拓扑熵分析2007—2021年中国与RCEP成员国数字服务贸易格局,运用时变随机前沿引力模型实证研究中国与RCEP成员国数字服务双边贸易的影响因素,并测算出贸易效率及潜力。研究发现:RCEP成员国间数字服务贸易额逐年呈上升趋势,贸易格局朝着均衡化方向发展,但贸易效率两极分化现象严重,贸易潜力有待进一步开发;贸易国经济发展水平的提高可以促进数字服务贸易,人口因素则会阻碍贸易开展,而随着数字技术的发展,削减了距离对贸易的不利影响。进一步研究结果显示,贸易国数字基础设施水平的提高会显著促进数字服务贸易,服务业发展水平、法律健全程度和政府监管程度的提高同样会对贸易发展起到一定的促进作用,而经济自由度水平和政治稳定程度则不利于数字服务贸易发展。各国应积极推进RCEP进程,增强RCEP成员国特别是中低收入国家的数字基础设施建设水平与投资力度,加强贸易国间的各项沟通,助推更深层次的战略合作。

Based on HM index and topological entropy,this paper analyzes the pattern of digital service trade between China and RCEP member countries from 2007 to 2021,uses time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to empirically study the influencing factors of bilateral digital service trade between China and RCEP member countries,and calculates trade efficiency and potential.The results show that the trade volume of digital services among RCEP member countries is on the rise year by year,and the trade pattern is developing towards equilibrium,but the polarization of trade efficiency is serious,and the trade potential needs to be further developed;The improvement of the economic development level of trading countries can promote digital service trade,while the demographic factor will hinder the development of trade.With the development of digital technology,the negative impact of distance reduction on trade has been reduced.Further research results show that the improvement of digital infrastructure level in trading countries will significantly promote digital service trade,and the improvement of service industry development level,legal integrity and government supervision will also have a certain promoting effect on trade development,while the level of economic freedom and political stability are not conducive to the development of digital service trade.Countries should actively promote the RCEP process,increase the level of digital infrastructure construction and investment of RCEP member countries,especially low and middle-income countries,strengthen political communication among trading countries,and promote deeper strategic cooperation.