低纬高原雷电活动孕灾环境敏感性分析

Study on environmental sensitivity of lightning activity in low latitude plateau

为了研究地闪频次与孕灾环境敏感性因子的相关性,将2007—2016年云南省范围内发生过地闪的区域划分为1 km×1 km格点单元,统计每个地闪格点的地闪密度、最高海拔、最大坡度和海拔标准差(地形起伏度).运用概率统计理论分析地闪格点海拔、坡度、海拔标准差的概率分布.同时,应用相关回归方法分析地闪密度与地闪格点海拔、坡度、海拔标准差正态概率密度函数的相关性,建立多元回归方程,并对方程进行验证.研究结果表明,地闪格点对应的海拔序列、坡度序列、地形起伏度序列服从正态分布;地闪密度与地闪格点海拔、坡度、海拔标准差的正态概率密度函数存在显著线性关系,其线性回归拟合结果可表征地闪孕灾环境敏感性.

In order to study the correlation between ground flash frequency and the sensitivity factors of disaster-prone environment,the area where ground flash occurred in Yunnan Province from 2007 to 2016 was divided into 1 km×1 km grid cells;and the ground flash density,highest altitude,maximum slope and standard deviation of altitude(topographic relief)of each ground flash grid were counted.Probability statistics theory was used to analyze the probability distribution of altitudes,slopes and standard deviations of the ground flash grids.At the same time,the correlation regression method was used to analyze the correlation between the ground flash density and the normal probability density function of the altitude,slope and standard deviation of the ground flash lattice.Meanwhile,the multiple regression equation was established and verified.The results show the normal distributions of the altitude sequence,slope sequence and topographic relief sequence corresponding to the ground flash.There is a significant linear relationship between the ground flash density and the normal probability density function of the altitude,slope and standard deviation of the ground flash lattice;and the linear regression fitting result can represent the sensitivity of disaster-prone environment of the ground flash.