关税措施对农业能源使用和碳排放的影响——以中美贸易摩擦为例

Impact of Tariff on Agricultural Energy Use and Carbon Emission:Taking Sino-US Trade Friction as an Example

关税措施会对农业能源使用及其碳排放带来怎样的影响,有待科学而系统的评估。构建农产品贸易、能源使用及其碳排放系统模型,并以2018年中美贸易摩擦事件为例,设置不同关税情景,模拟分析关税措施对我国农作物生产、能源使用及其碳排放多方面的影响。结果显示,加征美国大豆进口关税将会减少我国大豆进口总量,促使国内大豆种植面积和产量增加,小麦种植面积将被挤占,玉米种植面积略微增加。关税措施对国内农产品种植能源使用和碳排放总量没有显著影响,但是对不同农产品的影响具有异质性。加征关税使得大豆种植能源使用及碳排放明显增加,小麦种植能源使用及碳排放相应增加,而玉米种植能源使用及碳排放轻微下降。因而,要关注关税变化对农业生产、能源使用及其碳排放带来的系统性影响,协调农产品贸易与碳排放管理政策,基于作物用能特征和贸易条件分类制定适应性节能减排策略,缓解关税措施带来的系统性影响。

Tariff will have a systematic impact on China’s energy use and carbon emission.The paper constructs a“trade-energycarbon emission”system model for Chinese agricultural commodities.Based on the case of the Sino-US trade friction in 2018,we set up the simulation scenario of imposing different tariffs,and simulate the systematic impact of increasing tariff on crop planting areas,energy use and carbon emission.The results show that China’s increasing tariff on imported soybeans from the US will reduce the total soybeans import,increase the domestic sown area and output of soybeans and corn,and correspondingly reduce the sown area and output of wheat.The increasing tariff has no significant impact on the total energy use and carbon emission of domestic agricultural products.But the effects of various crops on energy use and carbon emissions is heterogeneous.The carbon emission of energy use from soybean production increased significantly,and those from wheat production decreased to a small extent.Thus,it is important to pay attention to the systemic effects of trade on energy use and their carbon emissions,coordinate agricultural trade and environmental policies,and make adaptive strategies to mitigate the systemic impacts of tariff.