中国与RCEP成员国水产品出口的贸易潜力分析——基于拓展的引力模型

Analysis of the Trade Potential of Aquatic Products Exports between China and RCEP Member States——Based on an Extended Gravity Model

RCEP的正式生效使得中国与RCEP各成员国乃至世界的水产品出口贸易迎来新的发展机遇。选取2006—2022年中国与RCEP13个成员国之间的面板数据,在测算对外贸易依存度和水产品贸易竞争力指数的基础上,引入拓展的引力模型分析影响中国对RCEP各成员国水产品出口的影响因素,并依据实证结果测算各国的水产品出口潜力。结果表明,贸易伙伴国的经济规模、人口规模、对外贸易依存度和中国水产品产量及在各贸易伙伴国市场上的贸易竞争力指数都对我国水产品出口贸易有显著的正向作用;除老挝是潜力巨大型、文莱是潜力再造型外,其余国家均为潜力开拓型,说明我国水产品对RCEP国家出口贸易已有一定的基础,且依然存在较大潜力空间可供开拓。

The official entry into force of RCEP has brought new opportunities for China’s aquatic products export trade with RCEP member countries and the world.In this paper,panel data from 2006 to 2022 between China and 13 RCEP member countries is selected to measure the foreign trade dependence and competitiveness index of aquatic product trade,thus an extended gravity model is introduced to analyze the influencing factors of China's aquatic product exports to each member country of RCEP.Based on those empirical data,the export potential of aquatic products in each country is calculated.The results indicate that trading partners’economic scale,population size,foreign trade dependence,China's aquatic product output and the competitiveness index at each market all have a significant positive impact on China's aquatic product export trade.Except for Laos,which has huge potential and Brunei,which is in the potential reshaping process,the other countries have great space for potential tapping.This shows that China's export trade of aquatic products to RCEP countries already have been laid a foundation,on which greater potential needs to be explored.