基于反事实模型的云南沿边型自由贸易试验区制度创新效应研究

A Counterfactual Model Based Research on the Institutional Innovation Effect in China's Border Pilot Free Trade Zones:A Case of Yunnan Province

自由贸易试验区是深化改革开放的实验田,云南自由贸易试验区与三国接壤,具有沿边跨境的优势,其制度创新效果与推动沿边开放,建设面向南亚东南亚辐射中心紧密相连。文章利用区域间经济发展的相关性构造反事实模型,从投资、贸易和经济增长三个层面对云南自贸试验区制度创新效应进行评估。研究显示:投资便利化制度创新有效性显著,但在推动实际使用金额增长上的动力不足;贸易便利化制度创新有效性非常显著,通过制度创新发挥了云南口岸分布多、通往国际陆路大通道便捷且接壤东盟的区位优势,有效促进边贸模式创新和跨境经济合作先行先试;但由于云南外向型产业基础薄弱,制度创新的市场主体需求不足,经济增长有效性较弱。因此,发挥跨境通道优势,提升贸易投资便利化,促进优势产业链上环节招商,逐步形成产业集群,推进与周边国家要素资源互补,畅通国内国际“双循环”,借助两个市场和两种资源打造中国与东盟的融合区,是云南自由贸易试验区发展的关键。

The Pilot Free Trade Zones(PFTZ)is the experimental field of deepening China's reform and opening up.Having the advantage of bordering three countries,Yunnan PFTZ closely connected its institutional innovation effect with the border opening up and the radiation center building for South Asia and Southeast Asia.This paper uses the correlation of economic development between regions to construct a counterfactual model to estimate the effect of Yunnan PFTZ institutional innovation from three aspects of investment,trade and economic growth.The results are as follows:(1)The investment institutional innovation is effective,but it lacks enough momentum to further boost the actual amount of fund utilization;(2)The effectiveness of the trade facilitation institutional innovation is remarkable,for Yunnan PFTZ has taken the geographical advantages of bordering ASEAN,distributing ports to promote the innovation of border trade and crossborder economic cooperation;(3)The institutional innovation of economic growth is rather weak due to the vulnerable export-oriented industrial foundation in Yunnan and insufficient demand of market entities for institutional innovation.Therefore,the key to develop Yunnan PFTZ is to give full play to the advantages of cross-border channels,enhance trade and investment facilitation,attract investment in the advantageous industrial chain,and gradually form industrial clusters to drive the factors complementary with neighboring countries,smooth the domestic and international circulations and build up an integration zone between China and ASEAN with both two markets and two resources.