中国省域环境可持续性时空格局及其影响因素

The spatio⁃temporal patterns and the influencing factors of provincial environmental sustainability in China

人类活动已成为人类世背景下全球环境变化的主要驱动力,因此将其合理调控在地球环境边界之内是实现可持续发展的前提条件。作为全球尺度的环境边界,行星边界秉持“地球系统观”,为统筹不同区域的环境可持续性评估提供了新视角。以行星边界为切入点,评估中国省域主要人类活动的环境可持续性状况,揭示其时空格局演变及社会经济影响因素。结果表明:(1)中国省域碳、氮、磷排放的不可持续性北部整体高于南部,分异程度随时间逐步拉大,不可持续省份数量的占比均已超出2/3;省域水、土地利用的可持续性南部整体高于北部,保持相对稳定,可持续省份数量的占比均已超出3/4。(2)中国省域环境可持续性大体受人口、经济、技术等因素的综合影响,且各类环境要素的可持续性之间存在一定的协同效应。其中,各类环境可持续性均受人口规模的正向驱动,同时氮、磷、水和土地的可持续性均受农业活动的负向驱动。(3)碳排放可持续性主要受能源消费强度的负向驱动,而磷排放可持续性同时受人口城镇化率的负向驱动,水可持续性受二产占比的负向驱动。基于行星边界的环境可持续性研究,可为区域合理界定和有效承担全球环境可持续性责任提供科学参考。

Human activities have become the major driver of global environmental change in the context of the Anthropocene,thus reasonably maintaining human socio-economic activities within the Earth′s environmental boundaries is a prerequisite for achieving sustainable development.As global environmental boundaries,the planetary boundaries adhere to the Earth-system view and provide a new perspective for coordinating environmental sustainability assessments in different regions.In accordance with the planetary boundaries,this paper assesses the spatio-temporal patterns of provincial environmental sustainability in China,and discusses the socio-economic influencing factors of environmental sustainability based on the spatial econometric models.The results show that:(1)The unsustainability of carbon,nitrogen,and phosphorus emissions in Chinese provinces are generally higher in the north than that in the south,and the degrees of differentiation gradually increase over time.The proportions of unsustainable provinces for those environmental elements have exceeded 2/3.In the meantime,the overall sustainability of both water and land use in the southern region are higher than that in the northern region,and remain relatively stable.The proportions of sustainable provinces for both water and land have exceeded 3/4.(2)The spatio-temporal patterns of provincial environmental sustainability in China are jointly affected by factors including population,economy and technology,and there are certain synergistic effects between various types of environmental sustainability.Among them,all types of environmental sustainability are positively driven by the population size,while the sustainability of nitrogen,phosphorus,water,and land are negatively driven by agricultural activities.(3)The sustainability of carbon emission is mainly negatively driven by energy consumption intensity;the sustainability of phosphorus emission is negatively driven by the urbanization rate of the population;the sustainability of water is negatively driven by the proportion of secondary production.The study of environmental sustainability in accordance with the planetary boundaries can provide scientific references for the regions to rationally define and effectively implement global environmental sustainability responsibilities.