气候变化和土地利用变化驱动下的生物多样性系统分析新框架

A new framework for biodiversity system analysis driven by climate change and land use change

尽管目前已有大量关于生物多样性评估的研究,但同时考虑生物多样性多维评估、多驱动因素对生物多样性变化的影响评估及生物多样性变化中长期动态模拟预测等研究仍相对缺乏,这会引起对生物多样性不同维度变化水平的片面理解,导致生物多样性保护工程管理决策失误。基于此,综述现有生物多样性评估维度、驱动因素及历史评估的研究进展,并基于现有研究存在的局限性提出生物多样性多维评估方法与人地耦合系统下生物多样性模拟模型构建思路,基于此提出气候变化和土地利用变化驱动下的生物多样性系统分析新框架。该框架包括:①生物多样性“潜力-贡献-重要性”多维评估理论与方法构建;②人地耦合系统下生物多样性模拟模型构建;③人地耦合系统下生物多样性预测及生物多样性保护工程效果仿真与管理。该框架可为生物多样性保护工程管理及可持续开展提供科学建议。

Substantial studies have shown that biodiversity assessment should include multiple dimensions.Individual biodiversity assessment index will confuse the understanding of different biodiversity levels,resulting in mistakes in the management and implementations of biodiversity conservation programs.Additionally,policy makers at national and local levels need more diversified information on biodiversity,and to integrate different types of biodiversity assessment results to make them more operable when guiding sustainable development of biodiversity conservation programs.Yet,it still lacks multi-dimensional biodiversity assessment studies.Moreover,quantitative simulations of biodiversity dynamics under interaction effects of climate-land use change are also still lacking,thereby it cannot determine and assess the short,medium,and long-term effects of biodiversity protection programs,which bring challenges to management and sustainable development of biodiversity conservation programs to adapt to interactions between continuous climate change and rapid land use change.Under such a circumstance,this study first summarizes the research progresses of existing biodiversity assessment dimensions,driving factors,and historical assessment,then,based on the limitations of current related studies,proposes the train of thoughts to build a multi-dimensional biodiversity assessment method and a biodiversity simulation model under the human-nature coupling system.Based on these,this study further proposes a new framework of biodiversity systematic analysis driven by interaction effects of climate change and land use change.This framework mainly includes three sections:(1)multi-dimensional assessment theory and method of biodiversity“potential-contribution-significance”.This study states that the three significant biodiversity assessment dimensions should include(a)biodiversity potential,which is the upper limit of biodiversity in a region,and also directly affects the upper limit of effects of biodiversity conservation programs;(b)contribution of biodiversity to human well-being or economy(such as domestication);(c)the significance of the existence of key species(such as rare species)to the survival of other species;(2)biodiversity dynamics simulation model establishment under a human-biological coupling system.This model mainly includes four modules:scenario design module,climate change simulation module,land use change simulation module,and biological diversity changes simulation module.Among them,the interaction of climate-land use changes constitutes a human-biological coupling system;(3)biodiversity projection under the human-biological coupling system,and effect simulation and management of biodiversity conservation programs.This study suggests to integrate different scenarios of climate-land use changes interactions with biodiversity conservation programs in a study case,to assess short,medium,and long-term of effects of related programs.This framework can provide guidance for sustainable management and implementation for local biodiversity conservation programs.