生态脆弱区农户返贫脆弱性评估及其影响因素--以陇南山区为例

Vulnerability assessment of farmers returning to poverty in ecologically fragile areas and its influencing factors:A case study of Longnan Mountain Area

生态脆弱区既是生态环境最敏感区域,也是返贫问题较为集中的区域,返贫脆弱性作为评价农户返贫状况的重要指标,可为生态脆弱区农户的防返贫提供有效借鉴。以地处西秦岭的陇南山区为例,构建农户的返贫脆弱性评价指标体系,并利用微观调查数据,测度农户的返贫脆弱性水平,并利用分位数回归模型揭示其影响因素。结果发现:(1)陇南山区农户返贫脆弱性指数均值为0.103,整体处于中度脆弱水平,等级分布呈“两头小中间大”的橄榄形态势。(2)不同类型农户的返贫脆弱性水平存在分化特征,高山区、农业收入占比高、抚养比高的农户返贫脆弱性较高,且农业收入占比高、抚养比高农户的高脆弱群体占比也高。(3)不同抚养比农户的暴露度与适应能力差异最为显著,敏感性水平则在不同生计方式和抚养比农户中差异最大。(4)家庭规模的扩大可显著增强农户的返贫脆弱性,而交通便利度、网络覆盖率、未来生活预期、帮扶措施多样化和政策帮扶强度的提高可有效减缓农户的返贫脆弱性;政策帮扶强度削弱了高度脆弱农户因交通便利度低所致的返贫脆弱性,帮扶措施多样化则减弱了户主受教育水平高所发挥的降脆效果。

Ecological fragile areas are not only the most sensitive areas to the ecological environment,but also the areas where poverty alleviation issues are relatively concentrated.As an important indicator for evaluating the poverty alleviation status of farmers,poverty alleviation vulnerability can provide effective reference for the prevention of poverty alleviation of farmers in the ecological fragile areas.This paper takes Longnan Mountain,located in the West Qinling Mountains,as an example,to build an evaluation index system of farmers′vulnerability to poverty,measure the level of farmers′vulnerability to poverty by using micro survey data,and reveal its influencing factors by using the quantile regression model.The results show that:(1)the average vulnerability index of farmers returning to poverty in Longnan mountainous areas is 0.103,which is generally at the moderate level of vulnerability,and the level distribution shows an olive shaped pattern of small at both ends and large in the middle.(2)The vulnerability level of returning to poverty among different types of farmers is characterized by differentiation.High mountain areas,high proportion of agricultural income,and high dependency ratio of farmers have higher vulnerability to returning to poverty,and the proportion of highly vulnerable groups with high proportion of agricultural income and high dependency ratio of farmers is also high.(3)The difference in exposure and adaptability among farmers with different dependency ratios is the most significant,while the sensitivity level varies the most among farmers with different livelihood methods and dependency ratios.(4)The expansion of household size can significantly enhance the vulnerability of farmers to returning to poverty,while transportation convenience,network coverage,future life expectations,diversification of assistance measures,and an increase in policy assistance intensity can effectively alleviate the vulnerability of farmers to returning to poverty.The intensity of policy assistance weakens the vulnerability of highly vulnerable farmers to returning to poverty due to low transportation convenience,while the diversified assistance measures weaken the impact of high education levels on reducing household vulnerability.Finally,starting from the principle of precise policy implementation,this study proposes policy recommendations from the perspectives of the government and different types of farmers to reduce the vulnerability of farmers in ecologically vulnerable areas to poverty return and improve the quality of poverty alleviation,in order to provide broader and more accurate policy insights for many farmers in ecologically vulnerable areas in China who are facing the risk of poverty return.