地方政府债务长期化对企业债务期限结构的影响

The Influence of Long-term Local Government Debt on the Maturity Structure of Corporate Debt

近年来,我国地方政府债务发行期限呈现快速长期化趋势,为探究地方政府债务长期化对实体企业部门的影响,本文借助2015—2020年沪深A股上市公司数据,检验了地方政府债务期限结构变动对实体企业部门债务期限结构的影响。研究结果表明,地方政府债务的长期化会对实体企业部门的债务融资产生期限挤出效应,地方政府债务的长期化会促使企业部门债务融资期限趋向于短期,且偏短期的债务期限结构将进一步抑制企业的研发投入,从而从“地方政府债务长期化→企业债务期限结构受到挤出效应→企业研发投入决策发生调整”的渠道揭示了地方政府债务对实体经济高质量发展产生的影响。本文的研究跳出了现有文献大多基于规模挤出效应考察地方政府债务对实体企业部门影响的局限,拓展了地方政府债务挤出效应方面的相关研究,也为有关部门合理设计地方政府债务期限结构提供了新的关注点。

In recent years,the issuance maturity of local government debt in China has shown the rapid long-term trend,and in order to explore the impact of long-term local government debt on the real enterprise sector,this paper examines the impact of changes in the term structure of local government debt on the debt term structure of the real enterprise sector with the help of data from China listed companies from 2015 to 2020.The research results show that the long-termization of local government debt will have the term crowdingout effect on the debt of the real enterprise sector,and the short-term debt structure will further inhibit the R&D investment of enterprises.Thus,this paper reveals the impact of local government debt risk on the real economy through the channel of"local government debt become long-term→enterprise debt term structure is subject to crowding out effect→enterprise R&D investment decision is adjusted".The research in this paper is beyond the limitations of the existing literature,which is mostly based on the size crowding-out effect,and expands the research on the crowding-out effect of local government debt,and also provides a new focus for the authorities to reasonably design the maturity structure of local government debt.