新能源汽车渗透率影响下的城市道路交通绿色度预测评价——以西安市为例

Prediction and evaluation of urban road traffic greenness under the influence of new energy vehicle penetration:A case study in Xi’an

道路交通系统的温室气体排放、污染物排放和能源消耗等问题突出,是我国节能减排的重点领域.本文综合利用层次分析法和全生命周期评价(LCA)方法,耦合13个定性指标和7个LCA定量指标,构建基于全生命周期评价量化结果的城市道路交通绿色度评价体系.以西安市实际数据为基础,讨论对比传统燃油汽车(ICEV)、纯电动汽车(BEV)和燃料电池汽车(FCV)等不同车型场景下城市道路交通绿色度差异,探究新能源汽车渗透率影响下的城市道路交通绿色度变化,量化预测新能源车型占比增加、车辆轻量化技术提升和电力结构优化等关键因素优化下的城市道路交通绿色度.结果发现,西安市当前道路交通绿色度处于良好水平,其中,环境污染是影响西安市道路交通绿色度的主要因素;通过不同车型场景和不同新能源车型渗透率场景下的城市道路交通绿色度评价结果对比可知,随着纯电动汽车渗透率增加城市道路交通绿色度逐渐提高,随着燃料电池汽车渗透率的增加城市道路交通绿色度逐渐降低;通过不同时间节点的情景预测可知,随着电力结构优化、车辆百公里能源消耗量降低、轻量化水平提高和城市道路基础建设的优化,城市道路交通绿色度将会进一步提高.

The significant challenges posed by of greenhouse gas emissions,pollutant emissions discharges,and energy consumption within the realm of road transportation are pivotal focal points for energy preservation and emission reduction in China.This article extensively employs analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and life cycle assessment(LCA)methodologies,coupled with 13 qualitative indicators and 7 LCA quantitative indicators,to establish a comprehensive urban road traffic greenness assessment system based on the quantitative results of life cycle assessment.Drawing on empirical data from Xi'an City,this study delves into and compares disparities in the eco-friendliness of urban road traffic across various vehicular scenarios including internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEV),battery electric vehicles(BEV),and fuel cell vehicles(FCV),and exploring the changes of urban road traffic greenness under the influence of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles,quantitatively predicting the changes of urban road traffic greenness under key factors such as the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles,the improvement of vehicle lightweight technology,and the optimization of electric power structure.The research findings that the current state of urban road traffic greenness in Xi'an ranks at a commendable level,with environmental contamination being the main factor affecting the greenness of road traffic in Xi'an.A comparative analysis of the evaluations of urban road traffic greenness across varying vehicle type scenarios and differing new energy vehicle penetration scenarios indicates that a gradual enhancement in urban road traffic greenness correlates with the increase in BEV adoption,whereas a decrease in urban road traffic greenness aligns with greater FCV adoption.Through scenario prediction at different time nodes,it can be seen that with the optimization of electric power structure,the reduction of energy consumption per 100 kilometers of vehicles,the improvement of lightweight level,and the optimization of urban road infrastructure,the greenness of urban road traffic will be further improved.