新疆乡村生态旅游与区域经济发展的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型

Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Rural Ecotourism and Regional Economic Development on Xinjiang-Based on the VAR Model

乡村旅游产业已成为一种具有重大意义的新兴产业,不仅可以加强城乡融合,还可以激发农村经济的活力,实现工业升级,成为当地实现乡村振兴的重要支撑。研究以2000—2020年新疆乡村生态旅游数据为基础,构建了以森林覆盖率、果园面积、年接待游客人数、农村人均家庭经营净收入、地区生产总值为变量的VAR模型,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等分析手段,探讨新疆地区乡村生态旅游与地区经济发展之间的动态关联。结果表明:新疆乡村生态旅游与区域经济发展具有长期稳定共同发展的趋势;新疆地区生产总值GDP与森林覆盖率和每年接待游客人数具有单向因果关系;地区生产总值对森林覆盖率和每年接待游客人数的波动影响较大。

Rural tourism industry has become an emerging industry of great significance.It can not only strengthen the integration of urban and rural areas,but also stimulate the vitality of rural economy,realize industrial upgrading,and become an important support for the realization of local rural revitalization.Study on the basis of 2000-2020 Xinjiang rural ecological tourism data,build the forest coverage,orchard area,annual visitors,rural per capita family management net income,regional GDP as variable VAR model,using coconsolidation test,Granger causality test,pulse response and variance decomposition analysis means,discusses the Xinjiang rural ecological tourism and the dynamic correlation between regional economic development.The results show that the rural ecotourism and regional economic development have a trend of long-term and stable development;the GDP and the number of tourists and the GDP has a great influence on the fluctuation of forest coverage rate and the number of tourists.